Models
RUPA & COMPANY LTDRUPATextiles & Apparels
₹77per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹77implied FY26 P/E 8.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹137.77−44.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹54₹122
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹109₹213
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 244 |
| PV of terminal value | 609 |
| Enterprise value | 853 |
| less net debt | (243) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 610 |
| ÷ 7.95 crore shares | ₹77 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 80 | 88 | 97 | 108 | 122 |
| 10.50% | 72 | 78 | 86 | 95 | 106 |
| 11.00% | 65 | 70 | 77 | 84 | 93 |
| 11.50% | 59 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 82 |
| 12.00% | 54 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 73 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹137.77; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 57 · 76 · 98 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,137 | 1,217 | 1,239 | 1,259 | 1,278 | 1,297 | 1,317 | 1,336 | 1,356 |
| growth % | (22.9) | 7.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 83 | 113 | 130 | 110 | 111 | 113 | 115 | 116 | 118 |
| margin % | 7.3 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (15) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) |
| EBIT | 70 | 99 | 116 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 99 | 100 | 102 |
| less tax on EBIT | (24) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (26) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| less capex | (30) | (10) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (20) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (14) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 154 | 146 | 51 | — | 66 | 64 | 62 | 61 | 59 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 63 | 55 | 48 | 42 | 37 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 248, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 95 | 96 | 97 | 99 | 100 | 102 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | (21) | |
| Profit before tax | 75 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 81 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 |
| Dividends | (24) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 55 | 104 | 151 | 196 | 239 |
| Working capital | 854 | 867 | 880 | 894 | 907 | 921 |
| Net block and other assets | 755 | 748 | 743 | 740 | 741 | 744 |
| Debt | 248 | 248 | 248 | 248 | 248 | 248 |
| Equity | 1,066 | 1,122 | 1,179 | 1,236 | 1,295 | 1,355 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 58 | 59 | 60 | 62 | 63 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (11) | (13) | (16) | (20) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 8.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹77 | (44.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.