Models
S. P. APPARELS LIMITEDSPALTextiles & Apparels
₹441per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹441implied FY26 P/E 10.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹1,026.90−57.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹297₹731
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹600₹1,222
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 221 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,235 |
| Enterprise value | 1,455 |
| less net debt | (346) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,109 |
| ÷ 2.51 crore shares | ₹441 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 462 | 511 | 569 | 641 | 731 |
| 10.50% | 411 | 451 | 499 | 557 | 628 |
| 11.00% | 367 | 401 | 441 | 488 | 545 |
| 11.50% | 329 | 359 | 392 | 431 | 478 |
| 12.00% | 297 | 322 | 350 | 383 | 422 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,026.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 261 · 436 · 617 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,078 | 1,087 | 1,395 | 1,579 | 1,784 | 2,016 | 2,278 | 2,574 | 2,909 |
| growth % | 25.4 | 0.9 | 28.3 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 143 | 158 | 188 | 218 | 246 | 278 | 314 | 355 | 401 |
| margin % | 13.2 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (38) | (43) | (48) | (54) | (60) | (68) | (77) | (87) |
| EBIT | 106 | 120 | 145 | 170 | 193 | 218 | 246 | 278 | 314 |
| less tax on EBIT | (46) | (52) | (59) | (67) | (76) | (85) | |||
| NOPAT | 124 | 140 | 158 | 179 | 202 | 229 | |||
| add depreciation | 36 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 54 | 60 | 68 | 77 | 87 |
| less capex | (52) | (55) | (82) | (108) | (121) | (121) | (118) | (113) | (105) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (64) | (72) | (82) | (92) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 164 | 24 | (38) | — | 16 | 34 | 57 | 85 | 119 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 29 | 44 | 59 | 74 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 400, dividends at 5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 170 | 193 | 218 | 246 | 278 | 314 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 151 | 176 | 204 | 236 | 272 | |
| Profit after tax | 101 | 110 | 128 | 149 | 172 | 198 |
| Dividends | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 54 | 34 | 31 | 50 | 96 | 174 |
| Working capital | 435 | 492 | 556 | 628 | 710 | 802 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,102 | 1,170 | 1,230 | 1,280 | 1,316 | 1,334 |
| Debt | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 |
| Equity | 940 | 1,044 | 1,166 | 1,307 | 1,471 | 1,659 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 107 | 125 | 145 | 168 | 193 | |
| Investing (capex) | (121) | (121) | (118) | (113) | (105) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | (20) | (3) | 19 | 46 | 79 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | 4 | 26 | 54 | 89 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 13.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹441 | (57.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.