Models
SAATVIK GREEN ENERGY LTDSAATVIKGLElectrical Equipment
₹320per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹320implied FY26 P/E 15.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹397.50−19.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3196%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹211₹538
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹328₹567
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 195 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,720 |
| Enterprise value | 4,915 |
| less net debt | (853) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,062 |
| ÷ 12.71 crore shares | ₹320 |
96% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 334 | 371 | 416 | 470 | 538 |
| 10.50% | 296 | 327 | 363 | 407 | 460 |
| 11.00% | 263 | 289 | 320 | 355 | 398 |
| 11.50% | 235 | 257 | 283 | 312 | 347 |
| 12.00% | 211 | 230 | 251 | 276 | 305 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹397.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 234 · 315 · 418 |
| Draws below the CMP | 86% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,548 | 4,912 | 5,305 | 5,730 | 6,188 | 6,683 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 538 | 580 | 626 | 676 | 730 | 789 |
| margin % | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| less depreciation | (64) | (69) | (74) | (80) | (87) | (94) |
| EBIT | 473 | 511 | 552 | 596 | 644 | 695 |
| less tax on EBIT | (90) | (98) | (105) | (114) | (123) | (133) |
| NOPAT | 383 | 413 | 446 | 482 | 521 | 562 |
| add depreciation | 64 | 69 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 |
| less capex | (601) | (648) | (548) | (426) | (282) | (112) |
| less working-capital build | — | (65) | (71) | (76) | (83) | (89) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (232) | (98) | 60 | 243 | 454 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (220) | (83) | 46 | 168 | 284 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 881, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 473 | 511 | 552 | 596 | 644 | 695 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | (71) | |
| Profit before tax | 439 | 480 | 525 | 572 | 624 | |
| Profit after tax | 357 | 356 | 389 | 424 | 463 | 505 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | (262) | (417) | (415) | (230) | 166 |
| Working capital | 820 | 885 | 956 | 1,033 | 1,115 | 1,204 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,267 | 2,846 | 3,320 | 3,666 | 3,861 | 3,880 |
| Debt | 881 | 881 | 881 | 881 | 881 | 881 |
| Equity | 1,361 | 1,716 | 2,105 | 2,529 | 2,992 | 3,497 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 359 | 392 | 428 | 467 | 509 | |
| Investing (capex) | (648) | (548) | (426) | (282) | (112) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (290) | (155) | 2 | 185 | 397 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (290) | (155) | 2 | 185 | 397 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 11.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹320 | (19.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.