Models
SAFARI IND (INDIA) LTDSAFARIConsumer Durables
₹481per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹481implied FY26 P/E 14.3× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹1,542.00−68.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹372₹700
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,363₹2,507
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 543 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,808 |
| Enterprise value | 2,351 |
| less net debt | 8 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,359 |
| ÷ 4.90 crore shares | ₹481 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 497 | 534 | 578 | 632 | 700 |
| 10.50% | 459 | 489 | 525 | 569 | 622 |
| 11.00% | 426 | 451 | 481 | 517 | 559 |
| 11.50% | 397 | 419 | 444 | 474 | 509 |
| 12.00% | 372 | 391 | 412 | 437 | 466 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,542.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 351 · 476 · 615 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,212 | 1,550 | 1,772 | 2,047 | 2,364 | 2,731 | 3,154 | 3,643 | 4,208 |
| growth % | 71.7 | 27.9 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 197 | 278 | 225 | 271 | 312 | 360 | 416 | 481 | 555 |
| margin % | 16.2 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (52) | (59) | (71) | (80) | (93) | (107) | (124) | (143) |
| EBIT | 164 | 226 | 166 | 200 | 232 | 268 | 309 | 357 | 412 |
| less tax on EBIT | (45) | (52) | (60) | (70) | (80) | (93) | |||
| NOPAT | 155 | 180 | 207 | 240 | 277 | 320 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 52 | 59 | 71 | 80 | 93 | 107 | 124 | 143 |
| less capex | (50) | (111) | (145) | (70) | (80) | (97) | (118) | (142) | (172) |
| less working-capital build | — | (66) | (76) | (88) | (101) | (117) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | 106 | (88) | — | 114 | 127 | 141 | 157 | 174 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 108 | 109 | 109 | 109 | 109 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 200 | 232 | 268 | 309 | 357 | 412 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 232 | 268 | 309 | 357 | 412 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 180 | 207 | 240 | 277 | 320 |
| Dividends | (17) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | 122 | 249 | 390 | 547 | 721 |
| Working capital | 423 | 489 | 564 | 652 | 753 | 870 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,015 | 1,015 | 1,020 | 1,030 | 1,049 | 1,078 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,115 | 1,294 | 1,502 | 1,741 | 2,018 | 2,337 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 194 | 224 | 259 | 299 | 346 | |
| Investing (capex) | (80) | (97) | (118) | (142) | (172) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 114 | 127 | 141 | 157 | 174 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 114 | 127 | 141 | 157 | 174 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 13.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹481 | (68.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.