₹486per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹486implied FY26 P/E 28.3× · EV/EBITDA 16.6×
Against CMP ₹1,585.00−69.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3193%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹354₹751
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹784₹1,697
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 747 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,583 |
| Enterprise value | 10,330 |
| less net debt | (13) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,317 |
| ÷ 21.23 crore shares | ₹486 |
93% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 504 | 549 | 603 | 669 | 751 |
| 10.50% | 458 | 495 | 539 | 592 | 657 |
| 11.00% | 418 | 449 | 486 | 529 | 581 |
| 11.50% | 384 | 410 | 441 | 477 | 520 |
| 12.00% | 354 | 377 | 403 | 433 | 469 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,585.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 339 · 479 · 671 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,695 | 2,192 | 2,839 | 3,677 | 4,762 | 6,166 | 7,985 |
| growth % | — | 29.4 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| EBITDA | 406 | 623 | 806 | 1,044 | 1,352 | 1,751 | 2,268 |
| margin % | 23.9 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 | 28.4 |
| less depreciation | (139) | (167) | (216) | (279) | (362) | (469) | (607) |
| EBIT | 267 | 456 | 591 | 765 | 990 | 1,283 | 1,661 |
| less tax on EBIT | (115) | (149) | (193) | (250) | (323) | (419) | |
| NOPAT | 341 | 442 | 572 | 741 | 959 | 1,242 | |
| add depreciation | 139 | 167 | 216 | 279 | 362 | 469 | 607 |
| less capex | (369) | (593) | (767) | (828) | (860) | (838) | (728) |
| less working-capital build | — | (70) | (91) | (118) | (153) | (198) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (55) | — | (180) | (68) | 125 | 437 | 923 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (170) | (58) | 96 | 303 | 577 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 95, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 456 | 591 | 765 | 990 | 1,283 | 1,661 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 583 | 757 | 983 | 1,275 | 1,653 | |
| Profit after tax | 349 | 436 | 566 | 735 | 954 | 1,237 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 82 | (103) | (177) | (58) | 373 | 1,290 |
| Working capital | 239 | 310 | 401 | 519 | 672 | 870 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,305 | 3,856 | 4,405 | 4,903 | 5,272 | 5,394 |
| Debt | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Equity | 2,484 | 2,920 | 3,486 | 4,221 | 5,175 | 6,412 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 581 | 755 | 979 | 1,269 | 1,645 | |
| Investing (capex) | (767) | (828) | (860) | (838) | (728) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (185) | (74) | 119 | 431 | 917 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (185) | (74) | 119 | 431 | 917 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 29.5% | 28.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹486 | (69.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.