Models
SAI SILKS (KALAMANDIR) LKALAMANDIRRetailing
₹109per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹109implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×
Against CMP ₹82.50+31.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹85₹157
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹83₹223
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 403 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,199 |
| Enterprise value | 1,602 |
| less net debt | (1) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,601 |
| ÷ 14.74 crore shares | ₹109 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 112 | 120 | 130 | 142 | 157 |
| 10.50% | 104 | 110 | 118 | 128 | 140 |
| 11.00% | 96 | 102 | 109 | 116 | 126 |
| 11.50% | 90 | 95 | 100 | 107 | 115 |
| 12.00% | 85 | 89 | 93 | 99 | 105 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹82.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 69 · 108 · 145 |
| Draws below the CMP | 20% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,374 | 1,462 | 1,654 | 1,869 | 2,112 | 2,386 | 2,696 | 3,047 |
| growth % | — | 6.4 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 212 | 212 | 261 | 295 | 334 | 377 | 426 | 481 |
| margin % | 15.4 | 14.5 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| less depreciation | (48) | (53) | (59) | (67) | (76) | (86) | (97) | (110) |
| EBIT | 164 | 159 | 202 | 228 | 258 | 291 | 329 | 372 |
| less tax on EBIT | (52) | (59) | (66) | (75) | (85) | (96) | ||
| NOPAT | 150 | 169 | 191 | 216 | 244 | 276 | ||
| add depreciation | 48 | 53 | 59 | 67 | 76 | 86 | 97 | 110 |
| less capex | (41) | (53) | (51) | (58) | (72) | (89) | (108) | (132) |
| less working-capital build | — | (85) | (96) | (109) | (123) | (139) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (63) | 54 | — | 94 | 99 | 105 | 110 | 115 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 89 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 72 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 20, dividends at 10.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 202 | 228 | 258 | 291 | 329 | 372 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 226 | 256 | 289 | 327 | 370 | |
| Profit after tax | 141 | 168 | 190 | 215 | 243 | 275 |
| Dividends | (15) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (29) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | 94 | 173 | 254 | 338 | 424 |
| Working capital | 655 | 740 | 836 | 945 | 1,068 | 1,206 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,175 | 1,166 | 1,161 | 1,164 | 1,175 | 1,197 |
| Debt | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Equity | 1,260 | 1,411 | 1,582 | 1,774 | 1,992 | 2,239 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 150 | 170 | 192 | 217 | 246 | |
| Investing (capex) | (58) | (72) | (89) | (108) | (132) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (25) | (29) | |
| Net change in cash | 75 | 78 | 81 | 84 | 86 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 92 | 98 | 104 | 109 | 114 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 15.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹109 | 31.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.