SAINT GOBAIN SEKUR IND L — valuation model

SAINT GOBAIN SEKUR IND LSEKURITINDAuto Components

₹102per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹102implied FY26 P/E 20.3× · EV/EBITDA 17.9×

Against CMP ₹110.00−7.4%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies18.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹78₹149

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	202
PV of terminal value	724
Enterprise value	925
less net debt	3
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	928
÷ 9.11 crore shares	₹102

78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	105	113	123	134	149
10.50%	97	104	111	121	132
11.00%	90	95	102	110	119
11.50%	84	88	94	100	108
12.00%	78	82	87	92	99

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹110.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	82 · 101 · 126
Draws below the CMP	68%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.59
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.56
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.52

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	186	201	208	243	283	330	384	448	521
growth %	23.2	7.7	3.8	16.6	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5	16.5
EBITDA	36	37	39	52	60	70	82	95	111
margin %	19.2	18.4	18.7	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3
less depreciation	(4)	(4)	(4)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(5)	(6)	(7)
EBIT	32	33	35	48	56	66	76	89	104
less tax on EBIT				(11)	(13)	(15)	(18)	(21)	(24)
NOPAT				37	43	50	59	68	80
add depreciation	4	4	4	3	4	5	5	6	7
less capex	(2)	(2)	(5)	(3)	(3)	(4)	(6)	(7)	(9)
less working-capital build				—	(5)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(9)
Free cash flow to firm	32	27	23	—	39	45	52	60	70
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					37	39	40	42	44

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 39.5% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	48	56	66	76	89	104
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		56	66	76	89	104
Profit after tax	46	43	50	59	68	80
Dividends	(18)	(17)	(20)	(23)	(27)	(31)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	3	25	50	79	113	151
Working capital	28	33	38	45	52	61
Net block and other assets	260	260	260	260	261	262
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	243	269	300	335	377	425
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		43	50	58	67	78
Investing (capex)		(3)	(4)	(6)	(7)	(9)
Financing (dividends)		(17)	(20)	(23)	(27)	(31)
Net change in cash		22	25	29	33	38
Free cash flow to equity		39	45	52	60	70

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	16.5%	21.3%	11.00%	5%	₹102	(7.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.