Models
SAMBHV STEEL TUBES LTDSAMBHVIndustrial Products
₹173per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹173implied FY26 P/E 30.9× · EV/EBITDA 19.9×
Against CMP ₹131.80+31.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies22.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹123₹275
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹81₹141
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 309 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,105 |
| Enterprise value | 5,414 |
| less net debt | (309) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,105 |
| ÷ 29.47 crore shares | ₹173 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 180 | 197 | 218 | 243 | 275 |
| 10.50% | 162 | 177 | 194 | 214 | 239 |
| 11.00% | 147 | 159 | 173 | 190 | 210 |
| 11.50% | 134 | 144 | 156 | 170 | 186 |
| 12.00% | 123 | 131 | 141 | 153 | 167 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹131.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 119 · 171 · 242 |
| Draws below the CMP | 18% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.50 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,511 | 2,413 | 3,137 | 4,078 | 5,302 | 6,892 | 8,960 |
| growth % | — | 59.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 154 | 273 | 355 | 461 | 599 | 779 | 1,013 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| less depreciation | (34) | (48) | (63) | (82) | (106) | (138) | (179) |
| EBIT | 120 | 224 | 292 | 379 | 493 | 641 | 833 |
| less tax on EBIT | (57) | (74) | (96) | (125) | (162) | (211) | |
| NOPAT | 168 | 218 | 283 | 368 | 479 | 622 | |
| add depreciation | 34 | 48 | 63 | 82 | 106 | 138 | 179 |
| less capex | (227) | (287) | (373) | (388) | (379) | (329) | (215) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (43) | (56) | (73) | (95) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (101) | — | (126) | (67) | 39 | 214 | 492 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (120) | (57) | 30 | 149 | 307 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 371, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 224 | 292 | 379 | 493 | 641 | 833 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| Profit before tax | 257 | 344 | 458 | 606 | 798 | |
| Profit after tax | 142 | 192 | 257 | 342 | 453 | 596 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 62 | (90) | (183) | (170) | 18 | 484 |
| Working capital | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 | 317 | 412 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,893 | 2,203 | 2,510 | 2,783 | 2,975 | 3,010 |
| Debt | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 | 371 |
| Equity | 1,054 | 1,245 | 1,503 | 1,845 | 2,298 | 2,894 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 221 | 296 | 392 | 517 | 680 | |
| Investing (capex) | (373) | (388) | (379) | (329) | (215) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (152) | (93) | 13 | 188 | 465 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (152) | (93) | 13 | 188 | 465 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹173 | 31.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.