Models
Samrat Forgings LimitedBSE 543229Industrial Products
₹1per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1implied FY26 P/E 0.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹226.95−99.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(43)₹89
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹162₹324
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 22 |
| PV of terminal value | 75 |
| Enterprise value | 96 |
| less net debt | (96) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 0 |
| ÷ 0.50 crore shares | ₹1 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 7 | 22 | 40 | 62 | 89 |
| 10.50% | (8) | 4 | 19 | 36 | 58 |
| 11.00% | (22) | (11) | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 11.50% | (33) | (24) | (14) | (2) | 12 |
| 12.00% | (43) | (36) | (27) | (17) | (5) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹226.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (50) · (0) · 52 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 181 | 162 | 191 | 203 | 215 | 228 | 242 | 256 | 272 |
| growth % | 30.0 | (10.6) | 17.9 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
| margin % | 8.2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| EBIT | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| less capex | (20) | (6) | (24) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | 11 | (4) | — | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 96, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| Interest at 8.6% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Profit after tax | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (1) | (2) | (3) | (2) | (1) |
| Working capital | 41 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 52 | 55 |
| Net block and other assets | 156 | 158 | 160 | 162 | 164 | 165 |
| Debt | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Equity | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 64 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 8.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1 | (99.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.