Models
SAMVRDHNA MTHRSN INTL LTDMOTHERSONAuto Components
₹55per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹55implied FY26 P/E 13.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹164.45−66.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹84
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹99₹173
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,731 |
| PV of terminal value | 50,937 |
| Enterprise value | 66,668 |
| less net debt | (8,379) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 58,289 |
| ÷ 1,055.44 crore shares | ₹55 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 57 | 62 | 68 | 75 | 84 |
| 10.50% | 52 | 56 | 61 | 67 | 74 |
| 11.00% | 48 | 51 | 55 | 60 | 65 |
| 11.50% | 44 | 47 | 50 | 54 | 59 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 53 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹164.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 36 · 55 · 75 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 78,701 | 98,692 | 1,13,663 | 1,26,104 | 1,39,975 | 1,55,372 | 1,72,463 | 1,91,434 | 2,12,492 |
| growth % | 23.9 | 25.4 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 6,108 | 9,037 | 10,552 | 11,489 | 12,738 | 14,139 | 15,694 | 17,421 | 19,337 |
| margin % | 7.8 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| less depreciation | (3,136) | (3,811) | (4,493) | (5,134) | (5,739) | (6,370) | (7,071) | (7,849) | (8,712) |
| EBIT | 2,972 | 5,226 | 6,058 | 6,356 | 6,999 | 7,769 | 8,623 | 9,572 | 10,625 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,938) | (2,135) | (2,369) | (2,630) | (2,919) | (3,241) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,417 | 4,864 | 5,399 | 5,993 | 6,652 | 7,384 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,136 | 3,811 | 4,493 | 5,134 | 5,739 | 6,370 | 7,071 | 7,849 | 8,712 |
| less capex | (2,221) | (4,125) | (4,561) | (6,054) | (6,719) | (7,504) | (8,382) | (9,361) | (10,455) |
| less working-capital build | — | (485) | (539) | (598) | (664) | (737) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,422 | 3,443 | 1,725 | — | 3,399 | 3,726 | 4,084 | 4,476 | 4,905 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,226 | 3,186 | 3,146 | 3,106 | 3,067 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 15,895, dividends at 18.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,356 | 6,999 | 7,769 | 8,623 | 9,572 | 10,625 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (1,558) | (1,558) | (1,558) | (1,558) | (1,558) | |
| Profit before tax | 5,441 | 6,211 | 7,065 | 8,014 | 9,067 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,860 | 3,782 | 4,317 | 4,910 | 5,570 | 6,301 |
| Dividends | (706) | (692) | (790) | (899) | (1,019) | (1,153) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7,516 | 9,140 | 10,994 | 13,097 | 15,471 | 18,140 |
| Working capital | 4,353 | 4,839 | 5,378 | 5,976 | 6,640 | 7,377 |
| Net block and other assets | 98,626 | 99,606 | 1,00,740 | 1,02,051 | 1,03,563 | 1,05,306 |
| Debt | 15,895 | 15,895 | 15,895 | 15,895 | 15,895 | 15,895 |
| Equity | 43,659 | 46,749 | 50,275 | 54,287 | 58,838 | 63,986 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9,035 | 10,148 | 11,383 | 12,755 | 14,277 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6,719) | (7,504) | (8,382) | (9,361) | (10,455) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (692) | (790) | (899) | (1,019) | (1,153) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,624 | 1,854 | 2,103 | 2,374 | 2,669 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,316 | 2,643 | 3,002 | 3,393 | 3,822 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 9.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹55 | (66.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.