Models
SANSERA ENGINEERING LTDSANSERAAuto Components
₹553per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹553implied FY26 P/E 9.9× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹4,115.50−86.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹385₹890
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,364₹4,170
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 230 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,575 |
| Enterprise value | 3,805 |
| less net debt | (354) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,451 |
| ÷ 6.24 crore shares | ₹553 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 576 | 633 | 702 | 785 | 890 |
| 10.50% | 517 | 564 | 620 | 688 | 770 |
| 11.00% | 467 | 506 | 553 | 608 | 674 |
| 11.50% | 423 | 457 | 496 | 542 | 596 |
| 12.00% | 385 | 414 | 448 | 486 | 531 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,115.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 323 · 544 · 784 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,338 | 2,811 | 3,017 | 3,498 | 4,058 | 4,707 | 5,460 | 6,333 | 7,347 |
| growth % | 17.6 | 20.2 | 7.3 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 377 | 480 | 515 | 616 | 714 | 828 | 961 | 1,115 | 1,293 |
| margin % | 16.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| less depreciation | (130) | (149) | (174) | (206) | (239) | (278) | (322) | (374) | (433) |
| EBIT | 247 | 330 | 341 | 410 | 475 | 551 | 639 | 741 | 860 |
| less tax on EBIT | (100) | (116) | (134) | (156) | (181) | (210) | |||
| NOPAT | 310 | 359 | 416 | 483 | 560 | 650 | |||
| add depreciation | 130 | 149 | 174 | 206 | 239 | 278 | 322 | 374 | 433 |
| less capex | (242) | (336) | (591) | (511) | (592) | (599) | (592) | (567) | (520) |
| less working-capital build | — | (121) | (140) | (163) | (189) | (219) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 14 | 39 | (214) | — | (115) | (45) | 51 | 178 | 344 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (109) | (38) | 39 | 123 | 215 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 458, dividends at 6.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 410 | 475 | 551 | 639 | 741 | 860 |
| Interest at 10% on debt | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) | |
| Profit before tax | 429 | 505 | 593 | 695 | 814 | |
| Profit after tax | 324 | 324 | 382 | 448 | 526 | 615 |
| Dividends | (20) | (20) | (24) | (28) | (33) | (38) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 104 | (66) | (169) | (181) | (71) | 201 |
| Working capital | 755 | 876 | 1,016 | 1,179 | 1,368 | 1,587 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,636 | 3,989 | 4,310 | 4,580 | 4,773 | 4,860 |
| Debt | 458 | 458 | 458 | 458 | 458 | 458 |
| Equity | 3,107 | 3,412 | 3,770 | 4,190 | 4,683 | 5,260 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 443 | 519 | 608 | 711 | 830 | |
| Investing (capex) | (592) | (599) | (592) | (567) | (520) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (20) | (24) | (28) | (33) | (38) | |
| Net change in cash | (170) | (103) | (12) | 111 | 272 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (150) | (80) | 16 | 143 | 310 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 17.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹553 | (86.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.