₹259per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹259implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 13.7×
Against CMP ₹80.00+223.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(13.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31114%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹174₹430
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹83₹265
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (181) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,453 |
| Enterprise value | 1,271 |
| less net debt | 11 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,282 |
| ÷ 4.95 crore shares | ₹259 |
114% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 270 | 299 | 334 | 377 | 430 |
| 10.50% | 240 | 264 | 293 | 327 | 369 |
| 11.00% | 214 | 235 | 259 | 287 | 321 |
| 11.50% | 193 | 210 | 230 | 254 | 281 |
| 12.00% | 174 | 189 | 206 | 225 | 248 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹80.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 165 · 252 · 362 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 350 | 522 | 679 | 882 | 1,147 | 1,491 | 1,939 |
| growth % | — | 49.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | 93 | 121 | 157 | 204 | 265 | 345 |
| margin % | — | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 |
| less depreciation | — | (18) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (68) |
| EBIT | — | 74 | 97 | 126 | 164 | 213 | 277 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (23) | (29) | |
| NOPAT | 67 | 87 | 113 | 147 | 191 | 248 | |
| add depreciation | — | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 68 |
| less capex | (159) | (161) | (209) | (213) | (201) | (162) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (43) | (56) | (73) | (94) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (343) | — | (132) | (112) | (70) | 8 | 140 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (125) | (96) | (54) | 6 | 87 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 97 | 126 | 164 | 213 | 277 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 97 | 126 | 164 | 213 | 277 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 87 | 113 | 147 | 191 | 248 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | (119) | (232) | (302) | (293) | (154) |
| Working capital | 110 | 143 | 186 | 242 | 314 | 409 |
| Net block and other assets | 985 | 1,170 | 1,352 | 1,513 | 1,623 | 1,636 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 976 | 1,063 | 1,176 | 1,322 | 1,513 | 1,761 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 77 | 101 | 131 | 170 | 221 | |
| Investing (capex) | (209) | (213) | (201) | (162) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (132) | (112) | (70) | 8 | 140 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (132) | (112) | (70) | 8 | 140 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 17.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹259 | 223.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.