Models
SARDA ENERGY & MIN LTDSARDAENFerrous Metals
₹785per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹785implied FY26 P/E 24.5× · EV/EBITDA 16.8×
Against CMP ₹523.50+50.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹584₹1,187
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹453₹640
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,214 |
| PV of terminal value | 23,945 |
| Enterprise value | 30,160 |
| less net debt | (2,488) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 27,672 |
| ÷ 35.24 crore shares | ₹785 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 814 | 882 | 963 | 1,062 | 1,187 |
| 10.50% | 743 | 800 | 866 | 946 | 1,043 |
| 11.00% | 683 | 730 | 785 | 851 | 929 |
| 11.50% | 630 | 670 | 717 | 771 | 835 |
| 12.00% | 584 | 619 | 658 | 704 | 757 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹523.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 586 · 778 · 1,029 |
| Draws below the CMP | 3% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,212 | 3,868 | 4,643 | 5,690 | 6,971 | 8,539 | 10,461 | 12,814 | 15,697 |
| growth % | 7.6 | (8.2) | 20.0 | 22.6 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,060 | 795 | 1,237 | 1,798 | 2,203 | 2,698 | 3,306 | 4,049 | 4,960 |
| margin % | 25.2 | 20.6 | 26.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 |
| less depreciation | (178) | (183) | (271) | (341) | (418) | (512) | (628) | (769) | (942) |
| EBIT | 882 | 612 | 966 | 1,457 | 1,785 | 2,186 | 2,678 | 3,280 | 4,019 |
| less tax on EBIT | (388) | (475) | (581) | (712) | (873) | (1,069) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,069 | 1,310 | 1,605 | 1,966 | 2,408 | 2,950 | |||
| add depreciation | 178 | 183 | 271 | 341 | 418 | 512 | 628 | 769 | 942 |
| less capex | (217) | (266) | (490) | (338) | (411) | (532) | (685) | (881) | (1,130) |
| less working-capital build | — | (202) | (248) | (304) | (372) | (456) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 485 | 487 | 395 | — | 1,115 | 1,338 | 1,604 | 1,924 | 2,306 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,058 | 1,144 | 1,236 | 1,335 | 1,442 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,595, dividends at 4.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,457 | 1,785 | 2,186 | 2,678 | 3,280 | 4,019 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (234) | (234) | (234) | (234) | (234) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,551 | 1,952 | 2,444 | 3,047 | 3,785 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,106 | 1,138 | 1,433 | 1,794 | 2,236 | 2,778 |
| Dividends | (53) | (55) | (69) | (86) | (107) | (133) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 108 | 996 | 2,093 | 3,440 | 5,085 | 7,086 |
| Working capital | 898 | 1,100 | 1,348 | 1,652 | 2,024 | 2,479 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,365 | 10,358 | 10,377 | 10,435 | 10,547 | 10,735 |
| Debt | 2,595 | 2,595 | 2,595 | 2,595 | 2,595 | 2,595 |
| Equity | 7,476 | 8,560 | 9,924 | 11,632 | 13,761 | 16,406 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,354 | 1,698 | 2,118 | 2,633 | 3,264 | |
| Investing (capex) | (411) | (532) | (685) | (881) | (1,130) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (55) | (69) | (86) | (107) | (133) | |
| Net change in cash | 888 | 1,097 | 1,347 | 1,645 | 2,001 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 943 | 1,166 | 1,433 | 1,752 | 2,134 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 31.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹785 | 50.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.