Models
SAREGAMA INDIA LIMITEDSAREGAMAEntertainment
₹91per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹91implied FY26 P/E 7.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹505.10−82.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹69₹134
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹307₹575
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 373 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,422 |
| Enterprise value | 1,795 |
| less net debt | (42) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,753 |
| ÷ 19.28 crore shares | ₹91 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 101 | 110 | 121 | 134 |
| 10.50% | 86 | 92 | 100 | 108 | 119 |
| 11.00% | 80 | 85 | 91 | 98 | 106 |
| 11.50% | 74 | 78 | 83 | 89 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 69 | 73 | 77 | 82 | 88 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹505.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 74 · 91 · 111 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 737 | 803 | 1,171 | 985 | 935 | 889 | 844 | 802 | 762 |
| growth % | 26.9 | 9.0 | 45.9 | (15.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 221 | 247 | 282 | 329 | 312 | 297 | 282 | 268 | 254 |
| margin % | 30.0 | 30.7 | 24.1 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 | 33.4 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (36) | (58) | (82) | (78) | (74) | (70) | (67) | (63) |
| EBIT | 200 | 210 | 224 | 247 | 235 | 223 | 212 | 201 | 191 |
| less tax on EBIT | (68) | (64) | (61) | (58) | (55) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 180 | 170 | 162 | 154 | 146 | 139 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 36 | 58 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 63 |
| less capex | (103) | (92) | (162) | (214) | (203) | (167) | (134) | (103) | (76) |
| less working-capital build | — | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (10) | 1 | 170 | — | 58 | 81 | 102 | 121 | 137 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 55 | 70 | 79 | 84 | 86 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 41.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 247 | 235 | 223 | 212 | 201 | 191 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 229 | 218 | 206 | 196 | 186 | |
| Profit after tax | 207 | 167 | 158 | 150 | 142 | 135 |
| Dividends | (87) | (70) | (66) | (63) | (60) | (57) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | 13 | 24 | 59 | 116 | 193 |
| Working capital | 263 | 250 | 237 | 225 | 214 | 203 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,031 | 2,156 | 2,249 | 2,313 | 2,350 | 2,362 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 1,695 | 1,792 | 1,884 | 1,971 | 2,053 | 2,132 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 257 | 244 | 232 | 220 | 209 | |
| Investing (capex) | (203) | (167) | (134) | (103) | (76) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (70) | (66) | (63) | (60) | (57) | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | 11 | 35 | 57 | 76 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 77 | 98 | 117 | 133 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 33.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹91 | (82.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.