Models
SAVITA OIL TECHNOLO. LTDSOTLPetroleum Products
₹121per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹121implied FY26 P/E 2.0× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹716.00−83.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹98₹168
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹286₹850
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 157 |
| PV of terminal value | 545 |
| Enterprise value | 702 |
| less net debt | 131 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 833 |
| ÷ 6.86 crore shares | ₹121 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 125 | 133 | 142 | 154 | 168 |
| 10.50% | 117 | 123 | 131 | 140 | 152 |
| 11.00% | 109 | 115 | 121 | 129 | 138 |
| 11.50% | 103 | 108 | 113 | 120 | 127 |
| 12.00% | 98 | 102 | 107 | 112 | 118 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹716.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (12) · 121 · 226 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.80 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,630 | 3,741 | 3,814 | 4,363 | 4,995 | 5,719 | 6,549 | 7,498 | 8,586 |
| growth % | 23.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 335 | 253 | 162 | 245 | 280 | 320 | 367 | 420 | 481 |
| margin % | 9.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (23) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) | (39) | (45) | (52) |
| EBIT | 314 | 230 | 138 | 219 | 250 | 286 | 327 | 375 | 429 |
| less tax on EBIT | (56) | (64) | (73) | (84) | (96) | (110) | |||
| NOPAT | 163 | 186 | 213 | 244 | 279 | 319 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 52 |
| less capex | (32) | (93) | (38) | (30) | (35) | (40) | (46) | (54) | (62) |
| less working-capital build | — | (149) | (171) | (196) | (224) | (257) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (96) | 74 | 23 | — | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 30 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 33 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 219 | 250 | 286 | 327 | 375 | 429 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 250 | 286 | 327 | 375 | 429 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 186 | 213 | 244 | 279 | 319 |
| Dividends | (27) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 131 | 162 | 198 | 239 | 285 | 337 |
| Working capital | 1,028 | 1,177 | 1,348 | 1,544 | 1,768 | 2,025 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,554 | 1,559 | 1,565 | 1,572 | 1,581 | 1,591 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,815 | 2,001 | 2,214 | 2,457 | 2,736 | 3,055 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 67 | 76 | 87 | 100 | 114 | |
| Investing (capex) | (35) | (40) | (46) | (54) | (62) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 52 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14.5% | 5.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹121 | (83.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.