Models
SAYAJI INDUSTRIES LTD.SAYAJIINDAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-9per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(9)implied FY26 P/E (0.3)× · EV/EBITDA 5.1×
Against CMP ₹118.90−107.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(25)₹24
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 58 |
| PV of terminal value | 139 |
| Enterprise value | 197 |
| less net debt | (219) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (22) |
| ÷ 2.53 crore shares | ₹(9) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (6) | (1) | 6 | 14 | 24 |
| 10.50% | (12) | (7) | (2) | 4 | 12 |
| 11.00% | (17) | (13) | (9) | (3) | 3 |
| 11.50% | (21) | (18) | (14) | (10) | (5) |
| 12.00% | (25) | (22) | (19) | (15) | (11) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (32) · (9) · 16 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,040 | 975 | 1,004 | 1,072 | 1,147 | 1,227 | 1,313 | 1,405 | 1,503 |
| growth % | 31.1 | (6.2) | 2.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 21 | 5 | (11) | 39 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 |
| margin % | 2.0 | 0.6 | (1.1) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (16) | (19) | (21) | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) |
| EBIT | 6 | (11) | (31) | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |||
| NOPAT | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 |
| less capex | (37) | (62) | (33) | (20) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (15) | (22) | (66) | — | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 220, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| Interest at 11.5% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | (6) | (4) | (3) | (1) | 0 | |
| Profit after tax | 1 | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) | 0 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (2) | (6) | (10) | (14) | (20) |
| Working capital | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| Net block and other assets | 557 | 556 | 556 | 558 | 562 | 567 |
| Debt | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| Equity | 96 | 92 | 88 | 86 | 85 | 85 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | |
| Investing (capex) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 3.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(9) | (107.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.