Models
SCODA TUBES LIMITEDSCODATUBESIndustrial Products
₹28per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹28implied FY26 P/E 4.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.5×
Against CMP ₹130.00−78.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31131%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹6₹72
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹110₹185
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (108) |
| PV of terminal value | 454 |
| Enterprise value | 346 |
| less net debt | (181) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 165 |
| ÷ 5.99 crore shares | ₹28 |
131% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 30 | 38 | 47 | 58 | 72 |
| 10.50% | 23 | 29 | 36 | 45 | 56 |
| 11.00% | 16 | 21 | 28 | 35 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 33 |
| 12.00% | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 25 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹130.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5 · 27 · 50 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 485 | 519 | 555 | 594 | 635 | 680 | 727 |
| growth % | — | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 78 | 76 | 82 | 87 | 93 | 100 | 107 |
| margin % | 16.1 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (13) |
| EBIT | 60 | 67 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 88 | 94 |
| less tax on EBIT | (18) | (19) | (20) | (22) | (23) | (25) | |
| NOPAT | 49 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 69 | |
| add depreciation | 18 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| less capex | (40) | (116) | (124) | (103) | (78) | (49) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (23) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (21) | — | (78) | (54) | (26) | 7 | 44 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (74) | (46) | (20) | 5 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 185, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 67 | 72 | 77 | 82 | 88 | 94 |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | |
| Profit before tax | 48 | 53 | 59 | 64 | 70 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 47 | 52 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (92) | (163) | (206) | (216) | (190) |
| Working capital | 248 | 266 | 284 | 304 | 326 | 348 |
| Net block and other assets | 435 | 549 | 641 | 707 | 744 | 747 |
| Debt | 185 | 185 | 185 | 185 | 185 | 185 |
| Equity | 390 | 426 | 465 | 508 | 556 | 608 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 42 | |
| Investing (capex) | (124) | (103) | (78) | (49) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (96) | (71) | (43) | (11) | 27 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (96) | (71) | (43) | (11) | 27 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 14.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹28 | (78.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.