₹244per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹244implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹390.45−37.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies30.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹187₹358
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹209₹437
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 723 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,117 |
| Enterprise value | 3,840 |
| less net debt | 111 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,951 |
| ÷ 16.18 crore shares | ₹244 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 252 | 272 | 295 | 323 | 358 |
| 10.50% | 232 | 248 | 267 | 290 | 317 |
| 11.00% | 215 | 229 | 244 | 263 | 285 |
| 11.50% | 200 | 212 | 225 | 240 | 258 |
| 12.00% | 187 | 197 | 208 | 221 | 236 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹390.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 199 · 242 · 295 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,441 | 1,556 | 1,681 | 1,815 | 1,961 | 2,118 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 379 | 409 | 442 | 477 | 516 | 557 |
| margin % | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 | 26.3 |
| less depreciation | (44) | (48) | (52) | (56) | (61) | (66) |
| EBIT | 335 | 361 | 390 | 421 | 455 | 491 |
| less tax on EBIT | (91) | (98) | (106) | (114) | (123) | (133) |
| NOPAT | 244 | 263 | 284 | 307 | 332 | 358 |
| add depreciation | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 |
| less capex | (161) | (174) | (157) | (135) | (110) | (79) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (36) | (38) | (42) | (45) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 104 | 144 | 189 | 241 | 300 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 99 | 123 | 146 | 167 | 188 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 77, dividends at 7.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 335 | 361 | 390 | 421 | 455 | 491 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 355 | 384 | 415 | 449 | 485 | |
| Profit after tax | 240 | 259 | 280 | 303 | 327 | 354 |
| Dividends | (17) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 188 | 269 | 389 | 552 | 766 | 1,036 |
| Working capital | 413 | 446 | 481 | 520 | 561 | 606 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,067 | 1,193 | 1,298 | 1,377 | 1,426 | 1,439 |
| Debt | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Equity | 1,426 | 1,666 | 1,926 | 2,207 | 2,511 | 2,840 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 274 | 296 | 320 | 346 | 374 | |
| Investing (capex) | (174) | (157) | (135) | (110) | (79) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | |
| Net change in cash | 81 | 120 | 163 | 214 | 271 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 100 | 139 | 185 | 237 | 296 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 26.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹244 | (37.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.