SESHASAYEE PAPER & BOARDS — valuation model

SESHASAYEE PAPER & BOARDSSESHAPAPERPaper Forest & Jute Products

₹79per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹79implied FY26 P/E 4.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×

Against CMP ₹251.92−68.8%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹62₹112

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹210₹293

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	128
PV of terminal value	338
Enterprise value	465
less net debt	8
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	473
÷ 6.02 crore shares	₹79

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	81	87	93	102	112
10.50%	75	80	85	92	100
11.00%	70	74	79	84	90
11.50%	66	69	73	77	83
12.00%	62	65	68	72	76

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹251.92; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	62 · 79 · 97
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.85
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.51
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.02

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	2,083	1,802	1,754	1,710	1,668	1,626	1,585	1,546	1,507
growth %	53.7	(13.5)	(2.6)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)
EBITDA	534	340	111	96	93	91	89	87	84
margin %	25.6	18.9	6.4	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.6
less depreciation	(45)	(44)	(45)	(45)	(43)	(42)	(41)	(40)	(39)
EBIT	489	296	66	51	50	49	48	46	45
less tax on EBIT				(13)	(13)	(13)	(13)	(12)	(12)
NOPAT				38	37	36	35	34	33
add depreciation	45	44	45	45	43	42	41	40	39
less capex	(32)	(40)	(63)	(56)	(55)	(53)	(51)	(49)	(47)
less working-capital build				—	8	8	7	7	7
Free cash flow to firm	297	162	(124)	—	33	33	33	33	33
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					31	28	25	23	20

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	51	50	49	48	46	45
Interest at 8% on debt		0	0	0	0	0
Profit before tax		50	49	48	46	45
Profit after tax	0	37	36	35	34	33
Dividends	(16)	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	8	41	74	106	139	172
Working capital	312	304	296	289	282	275
Net block and other assets	2,182	2,194	2,205	2,214	2,223	2,231
Debt	0	0	0	0	0	0
Equity	2,042	2,079	2,115	2,150	2,184	2,217
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		88	86	84	82	80
Investing (capex)		(55)	(53)	(51)	(49)	(47)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		33	33	33	33	33
Free cash flow to equity		33	33	33	33	33

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-2.5%	5.6%	11.00%	5%	₹79	(68.8)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.