Models
SG MART LIMITEDSGMARTMetals & Minerals Trading
₹110per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹110implied FY26 P/E 11.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹750.80−85.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31113%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹82₹168
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹313₹861
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (147) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,250 |
| Enterprise value | 1,103 |
| less net debt | 288 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,391 |
| ÷ 12.60 crore shares | ₹110 |
113% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 114 | 124 | 136 | 150 | 168 |
| 10.50% | 104 | 112 | 122 | 134 | 148 |
| 11.00% | 95 | 102 | 110 | 120 | 131 |
| 11.50% | 88 | 94 | 101 | 109 | 118 |
| 12.00% | 82 | 87 | 92 | 99 | 107 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹750.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 89 · 109 · 136 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3 | 2,683 | 5,856 | 6,315 | 6,821 | 7,366 | 7,955 | 8,592 | 9,279 |
| growth % | — | 78929.7 | 118.3 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 0 | 62 | 103 | 137 | 150 | 162 | 175 | 189 | 204 |
| margin % | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) |
| EBIT | (1) | 61 | 101 | 125 | 136 | 147 | 159 | 172 | 186 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (31) | (33) | (36) | (38) | (42) | |||
| NOPAT | 97 | 106 | 114 | 123 | 133 | 144 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| less capex | — | (59) | (158) | (232) | (252) | (209) | (157) | (95) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (20) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (73) | (549) | — | (148) | (96) | (34) | 37 | 120 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (140) | (82) | (27) | 26 | 75 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 231, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 125 | 136 | 147 | 159 | 172 | 186 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 111 | 122 | 133 | 146 | 160 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 86 | 94 | 104 | 113 | 124 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 520 | 352 | 237 | 183 | 200 | 300 |
| Working capital | 183 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 249 | 269 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,546 | 1,785 | 1,979 | 2,120 | 2,198 | 2,201 |
| Debt | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 231 |
| Equity | 1,597 | 1,682 | 1,777 | 1,880 | 1,994 | 2,118 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 85 | 93 | 102 | 112 | 123 | |
| Investing (capex) | (252) | (209) | (157) | (95) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (167) | (116) | (54) | 17 | 100 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (167) | (116) | (54) | 17 | 100 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 2.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹110 | (85.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.