Models
SHAH ALLOYS LIMITEDSHAHALLOYSIndustrial Products
₹603per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹603implied FY26 P/E 31.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.9×
Against CMP ₹92.60+550.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹471₹864
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹53₹117
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 382 |
| PV of terminal value | 873 |
| Enterprise value | 1,255 |
| less net debt | (62) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,193 |
| ÷ 1.98 crore shares | ₹603 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 622 | 666 | 719 | 783 | 864 |
| 10.50% | 576 | 612 | 655 | 707 | 771 |
| 11.00% | 536 | 567 | 603 | 645 | 696 |
| 11.50% | 501 | 527 | 558 | 593 | 635 |
| 12.00% | 471 | 494 | 519 | 549 | 583 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹92.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 513 · 603 · 710 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 626 | 592 | 267 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 29 |
| growth % | (28.8) | (5.4) | (55.0) | (86.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 4 | (27) | (10) | 141 | 134 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 |
| margin % | 0.6 | (4.6) | (3.8) | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 | 377.2 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (9) | (9) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | (5) | (36) | (19) | 134 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (24) | (23) | (21) | (20) | (19) | |||
| NOPAT | 109 | 104 | 98 | 93 | 89 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | 0 | (5) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 45 | (31) | (5) | — | 110 | 103 | 96 | 90 | 84 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 105 | 88 | 74 | 62 | 53 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 63, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 134 | 127 | 121 | 115 | 109 | 104 |
| Interest at 5.1% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 124 | 118 | 112 | 106 | 100 | |
| Profit after tax | 108 | 101 | 96 | 91 | 86 | 82 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 109 | 209 | 303 | 390 | 471 |
| Working capital | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Net block and other assets | 187 | 182 | 178 | 176 | 176 | 177 |
| Debt | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 |
| Equity | 112 | 213 | 309 | 400 | 486 | 568 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 108 | 103 | 97 | 92 | 88 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 108 | 100 | 94 | 87 | 81 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 108 | 100 | 94 | 87 | 81 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 377.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹603 | 550.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.