Models
SHAILY ENG PLASTICS LTDSHAILYConsumer Durables
₹842per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹842implied FY26 P/E 21.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹3,277.50−74.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹613₹1,300
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,771₹3,615
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 443 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,581 |
| Enterprise value | 4,024 |
| less net debt | (153) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,871 |
| ÷ 4.60 crore shares | ₹842 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 873 | 951 | 1,044 | 1,158 | 1,300 |
| 10.50% | 793 | 857 | 933 | 1,025 | 1,136 |
| 11.00% | 724 | 778 | 842 | 916 | 1,006 |
| 11.50% | 665 | 711 | 764 | 826 | 900 |
| 12.00% | 613 | 652 | 698 | 750 | 811 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,277.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 607 · 825 · 1,111 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.43 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 607 | 644 | 787 | 991 | 1,248 | 1,573 | 1,982 | 2,497 | 3,146 |
| growth % | 6.9 | 6.1 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| EBITDA | 92 | 117 | 176 | 280 | 353 | 445 | 561 | 707 | 890 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 18.2 | 22.4 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (36) | (42) | (49) | (62) | (79) | (99) | (125) | (157) |
| EBIT | 59 | 81 | 134 | 231 | 291 | 366 | 462 | 582 | 733 |
| less tax on EBIT | (55) | (69) | (87) | (109) | (138) | (174) | |||
| NOPAT | 176 | 222 | 280 | 352 | 444 | 559 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 36 | 42 | 49 | 62 | 79 | 99 | 125 | 157 |
| less capex | (94) | (87) | (68) | (178) | (225) | (236) | (238) | (225) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | (73) | (92) | (115) | (145) | (183) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | 5 | 42 | — | (13) | 31 | 98 | 199 | 345 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (12) | 26 | 76 | 138 | 216 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 174, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 231 | 291 | 366 | 462 | 582 | 733 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | 276 | 351 | 446 | 566 | 718 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 210 | 268 | 341 | 432 | 548 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | (4) | 15 | 102 | 289 | 622 |
| Working capital | 280 | 352 | 444 | 559 | 705 | 888 |
| Net block and other assets | 846 | 1,008 | 1,166 | 1,304 | 1,404 | 1,436 |
| Debt | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 | 174 |
| Equity | 717 | 927 | 1,195 | 1,535 | 1,968 | 2,515 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 200 | 255 | 324 | 412 | 522 | |
| Investing (capex) | (225) | (236) | (238) | (225) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (25) | 19 | 87 | 187 | 333 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (25) | 19 | 87 | 187 | 333 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 26% | 28.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹842 | (74.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.