Models
SHAKTI PUMPS (I) LTDSHAKTIPUMPIndustrial Products
₹293per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹293implied FY26 P/E 17.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.7×
Against CMP ₹493.15−40.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹221₹437
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹456₹915
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 658 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,006 |
| Enterprise value | 3,665 |
| less net debt | (48) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,617 |
| ÷ 12.34 crore shares | ₹293 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 303 | 328 | 357 | 392 | 437 |
| 10.50% | 278 | 298 | 322 | 351 | 386 |
| 11.00% | 256 | 273 | 293 | 316 | 345 |
| 11.50% | 238 | 252 | 269 | 288 | 311 |
| 12.00% | 221 | 234 | 248 | 264 | 283 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹493.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 235 · 291 · 356 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.61 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 968 | 1,371 | 2,516 | 2,698 | 2,886 | 3,088 | 3,305 | 3,536 | 3,784 |
| growth % | (17.9) | 41.7 | 83.6 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 67 | 225 | 603 | 422 | 450 | 482 | 516 | 552 | 590 |
| margin % | 6.9 | 16.4 | 24.0 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (19) | (20) | (28) | (29) | (31) | (33) | (35) | (38) |
| EBIT | 48 | 206 | 583 | 393 | 421 | 451 | 482 | 516 | 552 |
| less tax on EBIT | (111) | (119) | (128) | (137) | (146) | (156) | |||
| NOPAT | 282 | 302 | 323 | 346 | 370 | 396 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 19 | 20 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
| less capex | (23) | (21) | (108) | (163) | (173) | (148) | (119) | (85) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | (76) | (81) | (86) | (93) | (99) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 15 | 33 | (87) | — | 82 | 125 | 174 | 228 | 289 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 78 | 107 | 134 | 158 | 181 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 486, dividends at 4.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 393 | 421 | 451 | 482 | 516 | 552 |
| Interest at 18.1% on debt | (88) | (88) | (88) | (88) | (88) | |
| Profit before tax | 333 | 363 | 394 | 428 | 464 | |
| Profit after tax | 258 | 239 | 260 | 283 | 307 | 333 |
| Dividends | (12) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 439 | 446 | 496 | 593 | 743 | 953 |
| Working capital | 1,079 | 1,155 | 1,235 | 1,322 | 1,414 | 1,513 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,531 | 1,675 | 1,792 | 1,878 | 1,928 | 1,935 |
| Debt | 486 | 486 | 486 | 486 | 486 | 486 |
| Equity | 1,706 | 1,933 | 2,181 | 2,450 | 2,742 | 3,059 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 192 | 210 | 229 | 250 | 272 | |
| Investing (capex) | (173) | (148) | (119) | (85) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | 8 | 50 | 97 | 150 | 210 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 19 | 62 | 110 | 165 | 226 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 15.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹293 | (40.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.