₹1,035per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,035implied FY26 P/E 19.1× · EV/EBITDA 11.2×
Against CMP ₹1,257.90−17.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹803₹1,498
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹636₹1,380
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 608 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,900 |
| Enterprise value | 2,508 |
| less net debt | 2 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,510 |
| ÷ 2.43 crore shares | ₹1,035 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,069 | 1,147 | 1,241 | 1,355 | 1,498 |
| 10.50% | 987 | 1,052 | 1,129 | 1,221 | 1,333 |
| 11.00% | 917 | 971 | 1,035 | 1,110 | 1,201 |
| 11.50% | 856 | 902 | 956 | 1,019 | 1,092 |
| 12.00% | 803 | 843 | 888 | 941 | 1,002 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,257.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 860 · 1,025 · 1,234 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.72 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,826 | 7,372 | 7,962 | 8,598 | 9,286 | 10,029 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 224 | 243 | 263 | 284 | 306 | 331 |
| margin % | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| less depreciation | (10) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (10) |
| EBIT | 215 | 236 | 255 | 275 | 297 | 321 |
| less tax on EBIT | (57) | (62) | (67) | (73) | (78) | (85) |
| NOPAT | 158 | 174 | 188 | 203 | 219 | 236 |
| add depreciation | 10 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| less capex | (9) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (38) | (41) | (44) | (47) | (51) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 136 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 183 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 129 | 125 | 121 | 118 | 114 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 61, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 215 | 236 | 255 | 275 | 297 | 321 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 231 | 250 | 270 | 292 | 316 | |
| Profit after tax | 128 | 170 | 184 | 199 | 215 | 233 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 63 | 195 | 338 | 492 | 658 | 838 |
| Working capital | 471 | 509 | 550 | 594 | 641 | 692 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,071 | 1,071 | 1,072 | 1,072 | 1,074 | 1,076 |
| Debt | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Equity | 546 | 716 | 900 | 1,099 | 1,314 | 1,547 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 140 | 151 | 164 | 177 | 191 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 132 | 143 | 154 | 166 | 179 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 132 | 143 | 154 | 166 | 179 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 3.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,035 | (17.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.