Models
SHANTHI GEARS LTDSHANTIGEARIndustrial Manufacturing
₹91per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹91implied FY26 P/E 10.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.0×
Against CMP ₹722.30−87.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹70₹132
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹384₹743
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 161 |
| PV of terminal value | 538 |
| Enterprise value | 698 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 699 |
| ÷ 7.70 crore shares | ₹91 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 101 | 109 | 119 | 132 |
| 10.50% | 87 | 92 | 99 | 107 | 117 |
| 11.00% | 80 | 85 | 91 | 98 | 106 |
| 11.50% | 75 | 79 | 84 | 89 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 70 | 74 | 78 | 83 | 88 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹722.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 77 · 91 · 108 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 446 | 536 | 605 | 519 | 493 | 468 | 445 | 423 | 401 |
| growth % | 32.2 | 20.3 | 12.8 | (14.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 90 | 102 | 129 | 99 | 94 | 89 | 85 | 81 | 77 |
| margin % | 20.2 | 19.0 | 21.3 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (13) | (13) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) |
| EBIT | 79 | 89 | 115 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (20) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| less capex | (15) | (20) | (24) | (53) | (50) | (40) | (31) | (23) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 48 | 16 | 66 | — | 32 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 30 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 50.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | |
| Profit after tax | 77 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 |
| Dividends | (38) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) | (24) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 52 | 79 |
| Working capital | 156 | 148 | 141 | 134 | 127 | 121 |
| Net block and other assets | 398 | 433 | 459 | 476 | 485 | 488 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 440 | 469 | 497 | 524 | 549 | 573 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 67 | |
| Investing (capex) | (50) | (40) | (31) | (23) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) | (24) | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 10 | 16 | 22 | 28 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 32 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹91 | (87.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.