Models
SHARDA CROPCHEM LTD.SHARDACROPFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹814per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹814implied FY26 P/E 11.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹765.95+6.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹658₹1,124
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹756₹1,297
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,433 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,694 |
| Enterprise value | 7,127 |
| less net debt | 220 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,347 |
| ÷ 9.02 crore shares | ₹814 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 838 | 890 | 953 | 1,029 | 1,124 |
| 10.50% | 783 | 826 | 877 | 938 | 1,013 |
| 11.00% | 736 | 772 | 814 | 864 | 924 |
| 11.50% | 695 | 725 | 761 | 803 | 852 |
| 12.00% | 658 | 685 | 715 | 750 | 791 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹765.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 400 · 803 · 1,159 |
| Draws below the CMP | 45% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,045 | 3,163 | 4,320 | 5,268 | 6,426 | 7,840 | 9,565 | 11,669 | 14,237 |
| growth % | 13.0 | (21.8) | 36.6 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| EBITDA | 643 | 283 | 596 | 1,076 | 1,311 | 1,599 | 1,951 | 2,381 | 2,904 |
| margin % | 15.9 | 8.9 | 13.8 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 |
| less depreciation | (248) | (267) | (275) | (325) | (398) | (486) | (593) | (724) | (883) |
| EBIT | 395 | 16 | 321 | 752 | 913 | 1,113 | 1,358 | 1,657 | 2,022 |
| less tax on EBIT | (153) | (186) | (227) | (277) | (338) | (412) | |||
| NOPAT | 598 | 726 | 886 | 1,081 | 1,319 | 1,609 | |||
| add depreciation | 248 | 267 | 275 | 325 | 398 | 486 | 593 | 724 | 883 |
| less capex | (1) | (0) | (0) | (1) | 0 | (146) | (356) | (651) | (1,059) |
| less working-capital build | — | (443) | (540) | (659) | (804) | (981) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 328 | 341 | 603 | — | 682 | 686 | 659 | 588 | 452 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 647 | 587 | 508 | 408 | 283 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 16% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 752 | 913 | 1,113 | 1,358 | 1,657 | 2,022 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 913 | 1,113 | 1,358 | 1,657 | 2,022 | |
| Profit after tax | 681 | 726 | 886 | 1,081 | 1,319 | 1,609 |
| Dividends | (109) | (116) | (142) | (173) | (211) | (257) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 220 | 786 | 1,330 | 1,817 | 2,193 | 2,388 |
| Working capital | 2,010 | 2,453 | 2,993 | 3,652 | 4,456 | 5,437 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,550 | 3,152 | 2,811 | 2,574 | 2,502 | 2,678 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,137 | 3,747 | 4,492 | 5,400 | 6,508 | 7,860 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 682 | 832 | 1,015 | 1,239 | 1,511 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (146) | (356) | (651) | (1,059) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (116) | (142) | (173) | (211) | (257) | |
| Net change in cash | 566 | 545 | 486 | 376 | 194 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 682 | 686 | 659 | 588 | 452 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22% | 20.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹814 | 6.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.