Models
SHARDA MOTOR INDS LTDSHARDAMOTRAuto Components
₹1,495per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,495implied FY26 P/E 25.8× · EV/EBITDA 19.4×
Against CMP ₹945.00+58.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies8.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,146₹2,191
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹700₹1,190
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,723 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,766 |
| Enterprise value | 8,489 |
| less net debt | 92 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,581 |
| ÷ 5.74 crore shares | ₹1,495 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,545 | 1,662 | 1,803 | 1,975 | 2,191 |
| 10.50% | 1,422 | 1,519 | 1,635 | 1,773 | 1,942 |
| 11.00% | 1,317 | 1,399 | 1,495 | 1,608 | 1,744 |
| 11.50% | 1,226 | 1,296 | 1,376 | 1,470 | 1,582 |
| 12.00% | 1,146 | 1,206 | 1,275 | 1,354 | 1,447 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹945.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,157 · 1,486 · 1,901 |
| Draws below the CMP | 1% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,700 | 2,809 | 2,837 | 3,397 | 4,059 | 4,851 | 5,797 | 6,927 | 8,278 |
| growth % | 19.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 282 | 361 | 396 | 437 | 524 | 626 | 748 | 894 | 1,068 |
| margin % | 10.4 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (46) | (53) | (58) | (63) | (77) | (92) | (110) | (132) | (157) |
| EBIT | 235 | 309 | 338 | 373 | 447 | 534 | 638 | 762 | 911 |
| less tax on EBIT | (93) | (112) | (133) | (159) | (190) | (228) | |||
| NOPAT | 280 | 335 | 400 | 478 | 571 | 683 | |||
| add depreciation | 46 | 53 | 58 | 63 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 132 | 157 |
| less capex | (103) | (73) | (92) | (92) | (110) | (126) | (144) | (165) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (303) | 296 | 178 | — | 302 | 366 | 444 | 538 | 651 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 287 | 313 | 342 | 373 | 407 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 373 | 447 | 534 | 638 | 762 | 911 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 447 | 534 | 638 | 762 | 911 | |
| Profit after tax | 345 | 335 | 400 | 478 | 571 | 683 |
| Dividends | (93) | (90) | (108) | (129) | (154) | (184) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 92 | 304 | 562 | 877 | 1,261 | 1,728 |
| Working capital | (130) | (130) | (130) | (130) | (130) | (130) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,254 | 2,286 | 2,320 | 2,354 | 2,388 | 2,419 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,313 | 1,557 | 1,850 | 2,199 | 2,616 | 3,114 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 412 | 492 | 588 | 703 | 840 | |
| Investing (capex) | (110) | (126) | (144) | (165) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (90) | (108) | (129) | (154) | (184) | |
| Net change in cash | 212 | 258 | 315 | 384 | 467 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 302 | 366 | 444 | 538 | 651 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,495 | 58.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.