Models
SHARE IND. SECURITIES LTDSHAREINDIACapital Markets
₹307per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹307implied FY26 P/E 18.5× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹198.12+55.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹246₹429
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹115₹212
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,677 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,519 |
| Enterprise value | 6,196 |
| less net debt | 523 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,719 |
| ÷ 21.88 crore shares | ₹307 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 316 | 337 | 361 | 392 | 429 |
| 10.50% | 294 | 312 | 332 | 356 | 386 |
| 11.00% | 276 | 290 | 307 | 327 | 351 |
| 11.50% | 260 | 272 | 286 | 303 | 322 |
| 12.00% | 246 | 256 | 268 | 282 | 298 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹198.12; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 266 · 305 · 355 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,088 | 1,483 | 1,449 | 1,470 | 1,492 | 1,515 | 1,537 | 1,560 | 1,584 |
| growth % | 27.1 | 36.3 | (2.3) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 494 | 656 | 517 | 570 | 579 | 588 | 597 | 605 | 615 |
| margin % | 45.4 | 44.2 | 35.7 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (14) | (18) | (17) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (19) | (19) |
| EBIT | 482 | 642 | 499 | 553 | 561 | 570 | 578 | 587 | 596 |
| less tax on EBIT | (145) | (148) | (150) | (152) | (154) | (157) | |||
| NOPAT | 408 | 414 | 420 | 426 | 432 | 439 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| less capex | (10) | (15) | (13) | (5) | (4) | (9) | (13) | (18) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (274) | (326) | (7) | — | 427 | 429 | 431 | 433 | 435 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 405 | 367 | 332 | 301 | 272 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 9.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 553 | 561 | 570 | 578 | 587 | 596 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 561 | 570 | 578 | 587 | 596 | |
| Profit after tax | 323 | 414 | 420 | 426 | 432 | 439 |
| Dividends | (30) | (38) | (38) | (39) | (39) | (40) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 523 | 912 | 1,303 | 1,695 | 2,089 | 2,484 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,067 | 4,054 | 4,044 | 4,039 | 4,039 | 4,042 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,655 | 3,031 | 3,412 | 3,800 | 4,193 | 4,592 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 431 | 438 | 444 | 451 | 458 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (9) | (13) | (18) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (38) | (38) | (39) | (39) | (40) | |
| Net change in cash | 389 | 391 | 392 | 394 | 395 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 427 | 429 | 431 | 433 | 435 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 38.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹307 | 55.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.