Models
SHILCHAR TECHNOLOGIES LTDSHILCTECHElectrical Equipment
₹1,709per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,709implied FY26 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹4,135.50−58.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies35.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,274₹2,581
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,853₹5,399
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 242 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,693 |
| Enterprise value | 1,935 |
| less net debt | 21 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,956 |
| ÷ 1.14 crore shares | ₹1,709 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,770 | 1,918 | 2,095 | 2,311 | 2,581 |
| 10.50% | 1,617 | 1,740 | 1,884 | 2,058 | 2,270 |
| 11.00% | 1,486 | 1,589 | 1,709 | 1,852 | 2,022 |
| 11.50% | 1,373 | 1,460 | 1,562 | 1,680 | 1,820 |
| 12.00% | 1,274 | 1,349 | 1,436 | 1,535 | 1,651 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,135.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,409 · 1,695 · 2,061 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 280 | 397 | 623 | 652 | 681 | 712 | 744 | 777 | 812 |
| growth % | 55.5 | 41.6 | 57.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 113 | 185 | 190 | 199 | 208 | 217 | 227 | 237 |
| margin % | 18.9 | 28.5 | 29.6 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 51 | 111 | 181 | 186 | 195 | 204 | 213 | 222 | 232 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (49) | (52) | (54) | (56) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 139 | 145 | 152 | 159 | 166 | 173 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (6) | 0 | (33) | (148) | (155) | (122) | (87) | (48) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 34 | 76 | 6 | — | (13) | 25 | 67 | 113 | 163 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (12) | 22 | 52 | 79 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 186 | 195 | 204 | 213 | 222 | 232 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 195 | 204 | 213 | 222 | 232 | |
| Profit after tax | 158 | 145 | 152 | 159 | 166 | 173 |
| Dividends | (14) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (15) | (16) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | (5) | 7 | 60 | 159 | 306 |
| Working capital | 175 | 183 | 191 | 199 | 208 | 218 |
| Net block and other assets | 394 | 545 | 663 | 746 | 789 | 790 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 491 | 623 | 761 | 906 | 1,057 | 1,214 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 142 | 148 | 155 | 162 | 169 | |
| Investing (capex) | (155) | (122) | (87) | (48) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (14) | (14) | (15) | (16) | |
| Net change in cash | (26) | 12 | 53 | 98 | 147 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (13) | 25 | 67 | 113 | 163 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 29.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,709 | (58.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.