Models
SHILPA MEDICARE LTDSHILPAMEDPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹159per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹159implied FY26 P/E 10.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹959.05−83.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹107₹265
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹260₹980
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 223 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,511 |
| Enterprise value | 3,734 |
| less net debt | (617) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,117 |
| ÷ 19.55 crore shares | ₹159 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 167 | 184 | 206 | 232 | 265 |
| 10.50% | 148 | 163 | 181 | 202 | 227 |
| 11.00% | 132 | 145 | 159 | 177 | 197 |
| 11.50% | 119 | 129 | 142 | 156 | 173 |
| 12.00% | 107 | 116 | 126 | 138 | 153 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹959.05; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 89 · 156 · 229 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,050 | 1,152 | 1,286 | 1,539 | 1,839 | 2,198 | 2,626 | 3,138 | 3,750 |
| growth % | (8.3) | 9.7 | 11.7 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | 102 | 251 | 289 | 464 | 555 | 664 | 793 | 948 | 1,133 |
| margin % | 9.7 | 21.8 | 22.5 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 |
| less depreciation | (95) | (108) | (113) | (120) | (143) | (171) | (205) | (245) | (293) |
| EBIT | 7 | 143 | 176 | 344 | 412 | 492 | 588 | 703 | 840 |
| less tax on EBIT | (61) | (72) | (87) | (104) | (124) | (148) | |||
| NOPAT | 284 | 339 | 406 | 485 | 579 | 692 | |||
| add depreciation | 95 | 108 | 113 | 120 | 143 | 171 | 205 | 245 | 293 |
| less capex | (273) | (185) | (244) | (371) | (443) | (449) | (439) | (409) | (351) |
| less working-capital build | — | (145) | (173) | (207) | (247) | (296) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (46) | (49) | (111) | — | (105) | (45) | 43 | 167 | 338 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (100) | (38) | 33 | 116 | 211 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 658, dividends at 4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 344 | 412 | 492 | 588 | 703 | 840 |
| Interest at 9.4% on debt | (62) | (62) | (62) | (62) | (62) | |
| Profit before tax | 350 | 430 | 526 | 641 | 778 | |
| Profit after tax | 243 | 288 | 355 | 434 | 528 | 641 |
| Dividends | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (26) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 41 | (127) | (236) | (262) | (166) | 95 |
| Working capital | 743 | 888 | 1,061 | 1,268 | 1,516 | 1,811 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,921 | 3,221 | 3,498 | 3,733 | 3,897 | 3,956 |
| Debt | 658 | 658 | 658 | 658 | 658 | 658 |
| Equity | 2,591 | 2,868 | 3,209 | 3,625 | 4,132 | 4,748 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 287 | 353 | 432 | 526 | 638 | |
| Investing (capex) | (443) | (449) | (439) | (409) | (351) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (26) | |
| Net change in cash | (168) | (110) | (25) | 95 | 261 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (156) | (96) | (8) | 116 | 287 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 30.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹159 | (83.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.