Models
SHIPPING CORP OF INDIA LTSCITransport Services
₹231per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹231implied FY26 P/E 6.7× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹280.95−17.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies7.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹166₹360
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹196₹369
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,957 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,175 |
| Enterprise value | 13,131 |
| less net debt | (2,362) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,769 |
| ÷ 46.58 crore shares | ₹231 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 241 | 262 | 289 | 320 | 360 |
| 10.50% | 218 | 236 | 257 | 283 | 314 |
| 11.00% | 198 | 213 | 231 | 252 | 277 |
| 11.50% | 181 | 194 | 209 | 227 | 247 |
| 12.00% | 166 | 178 | 190 | 205 | 222 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹280.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 152 · 229 · 313 |
| Draws below the CMP | 78% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,794 | 5,047 | 5,606 | 5,780 | 5,953 | 6,132 | 6,316 | 6,505 | 6,700 |
| growth % | 16.0 | (12.9) | 11.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,556 | 1,423 | 1,764 | 2,185 | 2,250 | 2,318 | 2,387 | 2,459 | 2,533 |
| margin % | 26.9 | 28.2 | 31.5 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 |
| less depreciation | (753) | (889) | (951) | (1,064) | (1,095) | (1,128) | (1,162) | (1,197) | (1,233) |
| EBIT | 803 | 533 | 813 | 1,122 | 1,155 | 1,190 | 1,225 | 1,262 | 1,300 |
| less tax on EBIT | (56) | (58) | (59) | (61) | (63) | (65) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,066 | 1,097 | 1,130 | 1,164 | 1,199 | 1,235 | |||
| add depreciation | 753 | 889 | 951 | 1,064 | 1,095 | 1,128 | 1,162 | 1,197 | 1,233 |
| less capex | (476) | (512) | (292) | (1,550) | (1,595) | (1,571) | (1,544) | (1,513) | (1,479) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 990 | 482 | 558 | — | 589 | 680 | 774 | 874 | 980 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 560 | 581 | 597 | 607 | 613 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,477, dividends at 45% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,122 | 1,155 | 1,190 | 1,225 | 1,262 | 1,300 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (196) | (196) | (196) | (196) | (196) | |
| Profit before tax | 959 | 994 | 1,030 | 1,066 | 1,104 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,353 | 911 | 944 | 978 | 1,013 | 1,049 |
| Dividends | (609) | (410) | (425) | (440) | (456) | (472) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 115 | 108 | 177 | 325 | 558 | 880 |
| Working capital | 255 | 263 | 270 | 279 | 287 | 295 |
| Net block and other assets | 12,949 | 13,449 | 13,891 | 14,273 | 14,589 | 14,836 |
| Debt | 2,477 | 2,477 | 2,477 | 2,477 | 2,477 | 2,477 |
| Equity | 9,096 | 9,597 | 10,117 | 10,655 | 11,212 | 11,789 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,999 | 2,065 | 2,132 | 2,202 | 2,273 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,595) | (1,571) | (1,544) | (1,513) | (1,479) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (410) | (425) | (440) | (456) | (472) | |
| Net change in cash | (6) | 69 | 148 | 233 | 322 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 404 | 494 | 589 | 689 | 794 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 37.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹231 | (17.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.