Models
SHIVA TEXYARN LIMITEDSHIVATEXTextiles & Apparels
₹80per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹80implied FY26 P/E 10.7× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹179.99−55.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3160%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹56₹126
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹126₹218
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 66 |
| PV of terminal value | 100 |
| Enterprise value | 166 |
| less net debt | (63) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 103 |
| ÷ 1.30 crore shares | ₹80 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 83 | 91 | 100 | 112 | 126 |
| 10.50% | 75 | 81 | 89 | 98 | 109 |
| 11.00% | 68 | 73 | 80 | 87 | 96 |
| 11.50% | 62 | 66 | 72 | 78 | 85 |
| 12.00% | 56 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 76 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹179.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 40 · 78 · 119 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 335 | 323 | 341 | 359 | 379 | 400 | 422 | 445 |
| growth % | — | (3.7) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 8 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 |
| margin % | 2.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (14) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) |
| EBIT | (7) | 19 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| less tax on EBIT | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | ||
| NOPAT | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | ||
| add depreciation | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| less capex | (7) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (8) | (13) | (18) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3) | 9 | — | 22 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 21 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 70, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| Interest at 13.9% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Dividends | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 22 | 34 | 43 | 49 | 51 |
| Working capital | 84 | 88 | 93 | 98 | 104 | 109 |
| Net block and other assets | 180 | 169 | 161 | 157 | 156 | 160 |
| Debt | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Equity | 145 | 153 | 162 | 172 | 183 | 195 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 25 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (8) | (13) | (18) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 10% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹80 | (55.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.