Models
SHIVALIK BIMETAL CON. LTDSBCLIndustrial Products
₹217per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹217implied FY26 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹1,088.00−80.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹164₹325
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹369₹1,216
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 257 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,047 |
| Enterprise value | 1,304 |
| less net debt | (52) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,252 |
| ÷ 5.76 crore shares | ₹217 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 225 | 243 | 265 | 292 | 325 |
| 10.50% | 206 | 221 | 239 | 260 | 286 |
| 11.00% | 190 | 203 | 217 | 235 | 256 |
| 11.50% | 176 | 187 | 199 | 214 | 231 |
| 12.00% | 164 | 173 | 184 | 196 | 210 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,088.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 169 · 215 · 270 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 470 | 509 | 508 | 571 | 642 | 722 | 813 | 914 | 1,029 |
| growth % | 45.2 | 8.2 | (0.1) | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 109 | 106 | 104 | 130 | 146 | 164 | 185 | 208 | 234 |
| margin % | 23.2 | 20.9 | 20.4 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (12) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (25) |
| EBIT | 98 | 94 | 92 | 116 | 130 | 147 | 165 | 186 | 209 |
| less tax on EBIT | (29) | (33) | (37) | (41) | (47) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 87 | 98 | 110 | 124 | 139 | 156 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 |
| less capex | (32) | (22) | (30) | (35) | (39) | (38) | (36) | (34) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (36) | (40) | (45) | (51) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 34 | 47 | 63 | — | 42 | 53 | 67 | 82 | 101 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 40 | 46 | 51 | 57 | 63 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 59, dividends at 20.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 116 | 130 | 147 | 165 | 186 | 209 |
| Interest at 10.2% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 124 | 141 | 159 | 180 | 203 | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 93 | 105 | 119 | 134 | 152 |
| Dividends | (20) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (32) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 25 | 52 | 89 | 139 | 203 |
| Working capital | 253 | 284 | 320 | 360 | 405 | 456 |
| Net block and other assets | 376 | 400 | 421 | 438 | 450 | 455 |
| Debt | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 |
| Equity | 481 | 555 | 638 | 732 | 839 | 959 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 77 | 87 | 99 | 111 | 126 | |
| Investing (capex) | (39) | (38) | (36) | (34) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (32) | |
| Net change in cash | 18 | 27 | 37 | 50 | 65 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 38 | 49 | 62 | 78 | 96 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 22.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹217 | (80.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.