Models
SHRE PUSH CHEM & FERT LTDSHREEPUSHKChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹201per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹201implied FY26 P/E 9.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.8×
Against CMP ₹487.50−58.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31108%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹125₹353
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹272₹545
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (63) |
| PV of terminal value | 839 |
| Enterprise value | 776 |
| less net debt | (126) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 650 |
| ÷ 3.23 crore shares | ₹201 |
108% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 211 | 237 | 268 | 306 | 353 |
| 10.50% | 184 | 206 | 231 | 262 | 299 |
| 11.00% | 162 | 180 | 201 | 226 | 256 |
| 11.50% | 142 | 158 | 176 | 196 | 221 |
| 12.00% | 125 | 139 | 154 | 171 | 192 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹487.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 104 · 196 · 297 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 684 | 726 | 806 | 977 | 1,182 | 1,430 | 1,730 | 2,093 | 2,533 |
| growth % | 17.1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 68 | 61 | 84 | 100 | 121 | 146 | 176 | 214 | 258 |
| margin % | 10.0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (22) | (23) | (23) | (28) | (34) | (42) | (50) | (61) |
| EBIT | 50 | 39 | 61 | 76 | 92 | 112 | 135 | 163 | 198 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (16) | (20) | (24) | (29) | (35) | |||
| NOPAT | 63 | 76 | 92 | 111 | 135 | 163 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 34 | 42 | 50 | 61 |
| less capex | (26) | (47) | (47) | (116) | (141) | (138) | (128) | (108) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (39) | (48) | (58) | (70) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | (30) | (9) | — | (69) | (51) | (23) | 20 | 81 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (65) | (44) | (18) | 14 | 50 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 127, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 76 | 92 | 112 | 135 | 163 | 198 |
| Interest at 4% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 87 | 106 | 130 | 158 | 193 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 72 | 88 | 107 | 130 | 159 |
| Dividends | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (72) | (128) | (155) | (139) | (63) |
| Working capital | 155 | 188 | 227 | 275 | 333 | 403 |
| Net block and other assets | 814 | 927 | 1,030 | 1,117 | 1,174 | 1,186 |
| Debt | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 127 |
| Equity | 610 | 682 | 770 | 877 | 1,007 | 1,166 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 83 | 101 | 123 | 150 | |
| Investing (capex) | (141) | (138) | (128) | (108) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (73) | (55) | (27) | 15 | 77 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (73) | (55) | (27) | 15 | 77 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹201 | (58.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.