Models
SHREE AJIT PULP & PAPER LSAPPLPaper Forest & Jute Products
₹715per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹715implied FY26 P/E 21.2× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹290.80+145.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(17.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹491₹1,162
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹252₹334
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 219 |
| PV of terminal value | 672 |
| Enterprise value | 891 |
| less net debt | (255) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 636 |
| ÷ 0.89 crore shares | ₹715 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 748 | 823 | 914 | 1,024 | 1,162 |
| 10.50% | 669 | 731 | 805 | 894 | 1,002 |
| 11.00% | 601 | 654 | 715 | 788 | 875 |
| 11.50% | 542 | 587 | 639 | 699 | 770 |
| 12.00% | 491 | 529 | 573 | 624 | 683 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹290.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 302 · 692 · 1,075 |
| Draws below the CMP | 9% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 372 | 295 | 506 | 701 | 911 | 1,185 | 1,540 | 2,002 | 2,603 |
| growth % | (11.1) | (20.8) | 71.6 | 38.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 21 | 51 | 94 | 121 | 158 | 205 | 266 | 346 |
| margin % | 7.8 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (9) | (16) | (20) | (26) | (33) | (43) | (56) | (73) |
| EBIT | 22 | 12 | 35 | 74 | 96 | 124 | 162 | 210 | 273 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (28) | (36) | (47) | (61) | (79) | |||
| NOPAT | 52 | 68 | 89 | 115 | 150 | 195 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 9 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 33 | 43 | 56 | 73 |
| less capex | (162) | (97) | (47) | (5) | (6) | (16) | (31) | (54) | (87) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (52) | (68) | (89) | (115) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (141) | (77) | (39) | — | 47 | 53 | 59 | 63 | 65 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 45 | 45 | 45 | 44 | 40 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 256, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 96 | 124 | 162 | 210 | 273 |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | (32) | |
| Profit before tax | 63 | 92 | 129 | 178 | 241 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 45 | 66 | 92 | 127 | 172 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 25 | 55 | 91 | 131 | 173 |
| Working capital | 135 | 175 | 228 | 296 | 385 | 500 |
| Net block and other assets | 480 | 461 | 444 | 432 | 430 | 445 |
| Debt | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Equity | 278 | 323 | 389 | 481 | 608 | 779 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 46 | 67 | 94 | 129 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (16) | (31) | (54) | (87) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 42 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 42 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹715 | 145.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.