Models
SHREE CEMENT LIMITEDSHREECEMCement & Cement Products
₹4,129per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4,129implied FY26 P/E 9.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹22,570.00−81.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3159%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹3,325₹5,720
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹22,550₹30,520
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,755 |
| PV of terminal value | 9,622 |
| Enterprise value | 16,377 |
| less net debt | (1,479) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 14,898 |
| ÷ 3.61 crore shares | ₹4,129 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 4,259 | 4,525 | 4,843 | 5,233 | 5,720 |
| 10.50% | 3,972 | 4,193 | 4,454 | 4,767 | 5,150 |
| 11.00% | 3,726 | 3,912 | 4,129 | 4,385 | 4,693 |
| 11.50% | 3,512 | 3,671 | 3,853 | 4,066 | 4,318 |
| 12.00% | 3,325 | 3,461 | 3,616 | 3,795 | 4,005 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹22,570.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,019 · 4,073 · 6,167 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.18 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.00 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17,852 | 20,521 | 19,283 | 20,943 | 22,724 | 24,655 | 26,751 | 29,025 | 31,492 |
| growth % | 18.9 | 14.9 | (6.0) | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,960 | 4,517 | 3,934 | 4,638 | 5,022 | 5,449 | 5,912 | 6,414 | 6,960 |
| margin % | 16.6 | 22.0 | 20.4 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| less depreciation | (1,661) | (1,897) | (3,007) | (2,794) | (3,022) | (3,279) | (3,558) | (3,860) | (4,188) |
| EBIT | 1,299 | 2,619 | 927 | 1,844 | 2,000 | 2,170 | 2,354 | 2,554 | 2,771 |
| less tax on EBIT | (437) | (474) | (514) | (558) | (605) | (657) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,407 | 1,526 | 1,655 | 1,796 | 1,949 | 2,114 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,661 | 1,897 | 3,007 | 2,794 | 3,022 | 3,279 | 3,558 | 3,860 | 4,188 |
| less capex | (3,291) | (3,140) | (4,093) | (1,866) | (2,022) | (2,629) | (3,325) | (4,120) | (5,026) |
| less working-capital build | — | (253) | (274) | (298) | (323) | (350) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (723) | 207 | 827 | — | 2,273 | 2,031 | 1,731 | 1,366 | 926 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,157 | 1,737 | 1,334 | 948 | 579 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,594, dividends at 29% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,844 | 2,000 | 2,170 | 2,354 | 2,554 | 2,771 |
| Interest at 17.6% on debt | (280) | (280) | (280) | (280) | (280) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,719 | 1,889 | 2,074 | 2,274 | 2,491 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,744 | 1,312 | 1,441 | 1,582 | 1,735 | 1,900 |
| Dividends | (505) | (380) | (418) | (459) | (503) | (551) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 115 | 1,793 | 3,192 | 4,251 | 4,900 | 5,061 |
| Working capital | 2,978 | 3,231 | 3,505 | 3,803 | 4,126 | 4,476 |
| Net block and other assets | 28,383 | 27,383 | 26,733 | 26,501 | 26,760 | 27,598 |
| Debt | 1,594 | 1,594 | 1,594 | 1,594 | 1,594 | 1,594 |
| Equity | 23,314 | 24,245 | 25,269 | 26,392 | 27,624 | 28,973 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,081 | 4,446 | 4,842 | 5,272 | 5,739 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,022) | (2,629) | (3,325) | (4,120) | (5,026) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (380) | (418) | (459) | (503) | (551) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,678 | 1,399 | 1,058 | 649 | 161 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,059 | 1,817 | 1,517 | 1,152 | 712 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 22.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4,129 | (81.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.