Models
SHREE DIGVIJAY CEM CO LTDSHREDIGCEMCement & Cement Products
₹-18per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(18)implied FY26 P/E (14.7)× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹68.50−126.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31103%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(23)₹(8)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹54₹97
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (8) |
| PV of terminal value | 253 |
| Enterprise value | 246 |
| less net debt | (510) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (264) |
| ÷ 14.79 crore shares | ₹(18) |
103% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (17) | (16) | (13) | (11) | (8) |
| 10.50% | (19) | (18) | (16) | (14) | (11) |
| 11.00% | (20) | (19) | (18) | (16) | (14) |
| 11.50% | (22) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (17) |
| 12.00% | (23) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹68.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (24) · (18) · (11) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 727 | 792 | 725 | 749 | 775 | 802 | 831 | 860 | 890 |
| growth % | 15.5 | 9.0 | (8.4) | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 101 | 146 | 57 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 78 | 81 | 84 |
| margin % | 13.9 | 18.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (35) | (30) | (31) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) |
| EBIT | 66 | 111 | 27 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 46 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 35 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| less capex | (21) | (59) | (183) | (79) | (82) | (74) | (65) | (55) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 66 | 37 | (48) | — | (22) | (11) | (0) | 12 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (21) | (10) | (0) | 8 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 513, dividends at 89% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 39 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 46 |
| Interest at 3.1% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | 24 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 30 | |
| Profit after tax | 25 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| Dividends | (22) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | (46) | (86) | (116) | (135) | (143) |
| Working capital | 58 | 60 | 62 | 65 | 67 | 69 |
| Net block and other assets | 996 | 1,046 | 1,086 | 1,116 | 1,136 | 1,143 |
| Debt | 513 | 513 | 513 | 513 | 513 | 513 |
| Equity | 366 | 368 | 370 | 372 | 374 | 377 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 49 | 51 | 53 | 55 | 57 | |
| Investing (capex) | (82) | (74) | (65) | (55) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | |
| Net change in cash | (50) | (40) | (30) | (19) | (7) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (34) | (23) | (12) | (0) | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 9.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(18) | (126.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.