Models
SHREE HARI CHEMICALS EXPORT LTBSE 524336Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹-22per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(22)implied FY26 P/E (1.5)× · EV/EBITDA 2.1×
Against CMP ₹282.00−107.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3121%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(24)₹(19)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹88₹301
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11 |
| PV of terminal value | 3 |
| Enterprise value | 14 |
| less net debt | (28) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (14) |
| ÷ 0.63 crore shares | ₹(22) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (22) | (21) | (21) | (20) | (19) |
| 10.50% | (22) | (22) | (21) | (21) | (20) |
| 11.00% | (23) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (21) |
| 11.50% | (23) | (23) | (23) | (22) | (22) |
| 12.00% | (24) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (22) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹282.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (87) · (21) · 23 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 141 | 185 | 240 | 312 | 405 | 527 | 685 |
| growth % | — | 30.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 11 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| margin % | 7.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| EBIT | 8 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |
| NOPAT | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| less capex | (5) | 0 | 0 | (1) | (3) | (6) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (0) | — | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 33, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | |
| Profit after tax | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Working capital | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 35 | 45 |
| Net block and other assets | 90 | 87 | 84 | 82 | 82 | 83 |
| Debt | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Equity | 44 | 47 | 50 | 56 | 63 | 74 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (1) | (3) | (6) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | (2) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 3.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(22) | (107.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.