Models
SHREE KRISHNA PAPER MILLS & INBSE 500388Paper, Forest & Jute Products
₹365per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹365implied FY26 P/E 25.4× · EV/EBITDA 17.4×
Against CMP ₹90.00+305.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(18.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹266₹563
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹36₹149
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 82 |
| PV of terminal value | 453 |
| Enterprise value | 536 |
| less net debt | (42) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 494 |
| ÷ 1.35 crore shares | ₹365 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 379 | 413 | 453 | 502 | 563 |
| 10.50% | 344 | 372 | 405 | 444 | 492 |
| 11.00% | 315 | 338 | 365 | 397 | 436 |
| 11.50% | 289 | 309 | 332 | 359 | 390 |
| 12.00% | 266 | 284 | 303 | 326 | 352 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹90.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 261 · 357 · 484 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 178 | 144 | 169 | 228 | 297 | 385 | 501 | 651 | 847 |
| growth % | 71.9 | (18.8) | 16.9 | 35.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 25 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 40 | 52 | 68 | 88 | 114 |
| margin % | 14.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) |
| EBIT | 21 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 35 | 45 | 59 | 76 | 99 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (21) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| less capex | (6) | (3) | (5) | (10) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (18) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (14) | (18) | (24) | (31) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | 6 | (3) | — | 8 | 13 | 20 | 30 | 44 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 42, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 27 | 35 | 45 | 59 | 76 | 99 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 31 | 41 | 55 | 72 | 95 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 24 | 32 | 43 | 57 | 75 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 58 | 99 |
| Working capital | 36 | 47 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 |
| Net block and other assets | 100 | 108 | 116 | 124 | 130 | 133 |
| Debt | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Equity | 53 | 77 | 109 | 152 | 208 | 283 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 25 | 33 | 44 | 59 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (18) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 40 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 40 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹365 | 305.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.