₹1,407per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,407implied FY26 P/E 36.7× · EV/EBITDA 35.4×
Against CMP ₹350.10+301.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies0.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,038₹2,145
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹15₹829
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 196 |
| PV of terminal value | 872 |
| Enterprise value | 1,068 |
| less net debt | (87) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 981 |
| ÷ 0.70 crore shares | ₹1,407 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,460 | 1,584 | 1,734 | 1,917 | 2,145 |
| 10.50% | 1,330 | 1,433 | 1,555 | 1,702 | 1,882 |
| 11.00% | 1,218 | 1,305 | 1,407 | 1,527 | 1,671 |
| 11.50% | 1,122 | 1,196 | 1,282 | 1,382 | 1,500 |
| 12.00% | 1,038 | 1,102 | 1,174 | 1,258 | 1,357 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹350.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 981 · 1,402 · 1,941 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.28 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21 | 3 | 44 | 112 | 146 | 190 | 247 | 321 | 417 |
| growth % | 253.0 | (83.3) | 1173.6 | 152.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 39 | 51 | 66 | 86 | 112 |
| margin % | 5.0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 26.9 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 1 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 39 | 51 | 66 | 86 | 112 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) | (28) | |||
| NOPAT | 23 | 29 | 38 | 50 | 65 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2 | (35) | (27) | — | 29 | 38 | 50 | 65 | 84 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 28 | 33 | 38 | 45 | 52 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 92, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 30 | 39 | 51 | 66 | 86 | 112 |
| Interest at 6.6% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 33 | 45 | 60 | 80 | 106 | |
| Profit after tax | 18 | 25 | 34 | 45 | 60 | 79 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 31 | 64 | 109 | 169 | 249 |
| Working capital | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Net block and other assets | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 | 272 |
| Debt | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Equity | 70 | 95 | 128 | 174 | 234 | 313 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 34 | 45 | 60 | 79 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 25 | 34 | 45 | 60 | 79 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 25 | 34 | 45 | 60 | 79 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 26.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,407 | 301.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.