Models
SHRI JAGDAMBA POLYMERS LSHRJAGPIndustrial Products
₹234per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹234implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹647.00−63.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3192%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹152₹400
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 21 |
| PV of terminal value | 246 |
| Enterprise value | 266 |
| less net debt | (61) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 205 |
| ÷ 0.88 crore shares | ₹234 |
92% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 246 | 274 | 307 | 348 | 400 |
| 10.50% | 217 | 240 | 268 | 301 | 341 |
| 11.00% | 192 | 212 | 234 | 261 | 294 |
| 11.50% | 171 | 187 | 207 | 229 | 255 |
| 12.00% | 152 | 166 | 183 | 202 | 224 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹647.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 177 · 235 · 304 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 481 | 431 | 409 | 389 | 370 | 351 | 333 |
| growth % | — | (10.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 69 | 47 | 45 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 |
| margin % | 14.4 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 61 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | |
| NOPAT | 26 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |
| add depreciation | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (55) | (56) | (54) | (41) | (30) | (20) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (89) | — | (11) | (1) | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (11) | (1) | 6 | 11 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 93, dividends at 1.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 |
| Interest at 4.7% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 29 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 23 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| Dividends | (1) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 50 |
| Working capital | 144 | 137 | 130 | 123 | 117 | 111 |
| Net block and other assets | 287 | 330 | 361 | 381 | 392 | 393 |
| Debt | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Equity | 329 | 350 | 369 | 387 | 404 | 421 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 39 | 37 | 35 | 33 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (54) | (41) | (30) | (20) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (5) | 5 | 13 | 20 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | (4) | 5 | 13 | 21 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 10.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹234 | (63.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.