Models
Shri Keshav Cements and InfraBSE 530977Cement & Cement Products
₹-68per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(68)implied FY26 P/E (7.4)× · EV/EBITDA 3.2×
Against CMP ₹95.16−171.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(82)₹(41)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹90₹287
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 33 |
| PV of terminal value | 81 |
| Enterprise value | 114 |
| less net debt | (234) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (120) |
| ÷ 1.75 crore shares | ₹(68) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (66) | (62) | (56) | (49) | (41) |
| 10.50% | (71) | (67) | (63) | (57) | (51) |
| 11.00% | (75) | (72) | (68) | (64) | (59) |
| 11.50% | (79) | (76) | (73) | (69) | (65) |
| 12.00% | (82) | (80) | (77) | (74) | (70) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹95.16; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (155) · (70) · 1 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.26 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 123 | 126 | 121 | 161 | 210 | 273 | 354 | 461 | 599 |
| growth % | 8.3 | 2.6 | (4.0) | 32.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 35 | 36 | 25 | 36 | 47 | 61 | 79 | 103 | 134 |
| margin % | 28.3 | 28.9 | 20.7 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 22.3 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (12) | (12) | (19) | (24) | (32) | (41) | (53) | (69) |
| EBIT | 23 | 25 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (6) | (7) | (10) | (12) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 37 | 48 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 12 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 |
| less capex | (10) | (70) | (85) | (18) | (24) | (33) | (45) | (61) | (83) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (12) | (16) | (20) | (26) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 23 | (38) | (56) | — | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 234, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 1 | 8 | 16 | 28 | 43 | |
| Profit after tax | (7) | 1 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 32 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (8) | (15) | (22) | (30) | (38) |
| Working capital | 31 | 40 | 52 | 67 | 88 | 114 |
| Net block and other assets | 379 | 379 | 380 | 384 | 391 | 405 |
| Debt | 234 | 234 | 234 | 234 | 234 | 234 |
| Equity | 96 | 97 | 103 | 115 | 136 | 168 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 25 | 38 | 54 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (24) | (33) | (45) | (61) | (83) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (8) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 22.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(68) | (171.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.