Models
SHRINGAR HOU OF MANGALS LSHRINGARMSConsumer Durables
₹124per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹124implied FY26 P/E 9.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.5×
Against CMP ₹217.00−42.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹92₹187
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹166₹267
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 319 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,030 |
| Enterprise value | 1,348 |
| less net debt | (153) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,195 |
| ÷ 9.64 crore shares | ₹124 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 129 | 139 | 152 | 168 | 187 |
| 10.50% | 117 | 126 | 137 | 149 | 165 |
| 11.00% | 108 | 115 | 124 | 134 | 147 |
| 11.50% | 100 | 106 | 113 | 122 | 132 |
| 12.00% | 92 | 98 | 104 | 111 | 120 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹217.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 92 · 123 · 157 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,246 | 2,425 | 2,620 | 2,829 | 3,055 | 3,300 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 159 | 172 | 186 | 201 | 217 | 234 |
| margin % | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) |
| EBIT | 155 | 167 | 181 | 195 | 211 | 228 |
| less tax on EBIT | (37) | (40) | (44) | (47) | (51) | (55) |
| NOPAT | 118 | 127 | 137 | 148 | 160 | 173 |
| add depreciation | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| less capex | (9) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | (53) | (57) | (62) | (67) | (72) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 69 | 76 | 83 | 91 | 99 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 65 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 62 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 179, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 155 | 167 | 181 | 195 | 211 | 228 |
| Interest at 4.2% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 160 | 173 | 188 | 203 | 220 | |
| Profit after tax | 115 | 121 | 131 | 142 | 154 | 167 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 26 | 89 | 159 | 236 | 321 | 415 |
| Working capital | 666 | 719 | 776 | 838 | 905 | 978 |
| Net block and other assets | 200 | 205 | 209 | 212 | 215 | 216 |
| Debt | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 | 179 |
| Equity | 678 | 799 | 931 | 1,073 | 1,227 | 1,394 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 73 | 79 | 86 | 93 | 101 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 63 | 70 | 77 | 85 | 93 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 63 | 70 | 77 | 85 | 93 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 7.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹124 | (42.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.