Models
SPR AUTO TECHNOLOGIES LTDSHRIPISTONAuto Components
₹2,659per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,659implied FY26 P/E 20.8× · EV/EBITDA 15.9×
Against CMP ₹4,361.10−39.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,928₹4,119
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,526₹4,786
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,580 |
| PV of terminal value | 10,882 |
| Enterprise value | 13,462 |
| less net debt | (1,762) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,700 |
| ÷ 4.40 crore shares | ₹2,659 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,764 | 3,010 | 3,306 | 3,667 | 4,119 |
| 10.50% | 2,506 | 2,711 | 2,953 | 3,243 | 3,598 |
| 11.00% | 2,285 | 2,458 | 2,659 | 2,897 | 3,182 |
| 11.50% | 2,095 | 2,242 | 2,411 | 2,608 | 2,842 |
| 12.00% | 1,928 | 2,054 | 2,198 | 2,365 | 2,559 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,361.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,912 · 2,610 · 3,535 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,609 | 3,089 | 3,550 | 4,459 | 5,596 | 7,023 | 8,813 | 11,061 | 13,881 |
| growth % | — | 18.4 | 14.9 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| EBITDA | 460 | 642 | 724 | 849 | 1,063 | 1,334 | 1,675 | 2,102 | 2,637 |
| margin % | 17.6 | 20.8 | 20.4 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| less depreciation | (95) | (108) | (120) | (149) | (185) | (232) | (291) | (365) | (458) |
| EBIT | 366 | 534 | 605 | 700 | 879 | 1,103 | 1,384 | 1,737 | 2,179 |
| less tax on EBIT | (176) | (221) | (278) | (349) | (438) | (549) | |||
| NOPAT | 524 | 657 | 825 | 1,035 | 1,299 | 1,630 | |||
| add depreciation | 95 | 108 | 120 | 149 | 185 | 232 | 291 | 365 | 458 |
| less capex | (50) | (142) | (172) | (185) | (229) | (285) | (355) | (442) | (550) |
| less working-capital build | — | (198) | (248) | (312) | (391) | (491) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 345 | 345 | 263 | — | 415 | 523 | 659 | 831 | 1,048 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 393 | 447 | 508 | 577 | 655 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,867, dividends at 8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 700 | 879 | 1,103 | 1,384 | 1,737 | 2,179 |
| Interest at 5.3% on debt | (99) | (99) | (99) | (99) | (99) | |
| Profit before tax | 780 | 1,004 | 1,285 | 1,638 | 2,080 | |
| Profit after tax | 553 | 583 | 751 | 961 | 1,225 | 1,556 |
| Dividends | (44) | (47) | (60) | (77) | (98) | (124) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 105 | 399 | 787 | 1,295 | 1,954 | 2,804 |
| Working capital | 774 | 972 | 1,221 | 1,532 | 1,923 | 2,414 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,273 | 5,318 | 5,372 | 5,436 | 5,513 | 5,605 |
| Debt | 1,867 | 1,867 | 1,867 | 1,867 | 1,867 | 1,867 |
| Equity | 3,018 | 3,555 | 4,245 | 5,129 | 6,256 | 7,688 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 570 | 734 | 940 | 1,199 | 1,523 | |
| Investing (capex) | (229) | (285) | (355) | (442) | (550) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (47) | (60) | (77) | (98) | (124) | |
| Net change in cash | 294 | 389 | 508 | 659 | 849 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 341 | 449 | 585 | 757 | 974 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25.5% | 19% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,659 | (39.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.