Models
SHYAM METALICS AND ENGY LSHYAMMETLIndustrial Products
₹780per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹780implied FY26 P/E 19.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹1,076.90−27.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies31.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹548₹1,247
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹746₹1,111
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 473 |
| PV of terminal value | 22,123 |
| Enterprise value | 22,596 |
| less net debt | (884) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 21,712 |
| ÷ 27.84 crore shares | ₹780 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 811 | 890 | 985 | 1,101 | 1,247 |
| 10.50% | 730 | 795 | 873 | 966 | 1,080 |
| 11.00% | 660 | 715 | 780 | 856 | 948 |
| 11.50% | 600 | 647 | 701 | 765 | 840 |
| 12.00% | 548 | 588 | 634 | 688 | 750 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,076.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 510 · 765 · 1,106 |
| Draws below the CMP | 88% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,610 | 13,195 | 15,138 | 18,552 | 22,726 | 27,840 | 34,104 | 41,777 | 51,177 |
| growth % | 21.3 | 4.6 | 14.7 | 22.6 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,486 | 1,570 | 1,866 | 2,333 | 2,864 | 3,508 | 4,297 | 5,264 | 6,448 |
| margin % | 11.8 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (463) | (656) | (711) | (882) | (1,091) | (1,336) | (1,637) | (2,005) | (2,457) |
| EBIT | 1,023 | 914 | 1,154 | 1,451 | 1,773 | 2,172 | 2,660 | 3,259 | 3,992 |
| less tax on EBIT | (399) | (487) | (597) | (732) | (896) | (1,098) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,052 | 1,285 | 1,574 | 1,929 | 2,363 | 2,894 | |||
| add depreciation | 463 | 656 | 711 | 882 | 1,091 | 1,336 | 1,637 | 2,005 | 2,457 |
| less capex | (1,579) | (1,888) | (2,148) | (2,637) | (3,227) | (3,366) | (3,404) | (3,288) | (2,948) |
| less working-capital build | — | (121) | (148) | (182) | (223) | (273) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (72) | (93) | (184) | — | (972) | (603) | (20) | 857 | 2,130 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (923) | (516) | (15) | 595 | 1,332 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 981, dividends at 10.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,451 | 1,773 | 2,172 | 2,660 | 3,259 | 3,992 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,694 | 2,093 | 2,582 | 3,180 | 3,913 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,070 | 1,228 | 1,517 | 1,872 | 2,306 | 2,837 |
| Dividends | (112) | (129) | (159) | (197) | (242) | (298) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 97 | (1,061) | (1,881) | (2,154) | (1,595) | 180 |
| Working capital | 539 | 660 | 808 | 990 | 1,212 | 1,485 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,425 | 21,561 | 23,591 | 25,357 | 26,640 | 27,131 |
| Debt | 981 | 981 | 981 | 981 | 981 | 981 |
| Equity | 12,357 | 13,456 | 14,815 | 16,490 | 18,553 | 21,092 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,198 | 2,705 | 3,327 | 4,088 | 5,021 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,227) | (3,366) | (3,404) | (3,288) | (2,948) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (129) | (159) | (197) | (242) | (298) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,158) | (820) | (273) | 558 | 1,775 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,029) | (660) | (77) | 800 | 2,073 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹780 | (27.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.