Models
SICAL LOGISTICS LIMITEDSICALLOG
₹302per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹302implied FY26 P/E 29.1× · EV/EBITDA 21.0×
Against CMP ₹98.97+205.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies6.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹212₹484
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹60₹123
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 358 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,458 |
| Enterprise value | 2,815 |
| less net debt | (402) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,413 |
| ÷ 7.98 crore shares | ₹302 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 315 | 346 | 383 | 428 | 484 |
| 10.50% | 283 | 309 | 339 | 375 | 419 |
| 11.00% | 256 | 277 | 302 | 332 | 368 |
| 11.50% | 232 | 251 | 272 | 296 | 325 |
| 12.00% | 212 | 228 | 246 | 266 | 290 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹98.97; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 196 · 298 · 439 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 392 | 221 | 222 | 386 | 501 | 652 | 847 | 1,102 | 1,432 |
| growth % | 12.4 | (43.6) | 0.3 | 73.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (775) | 55 | 31 | 134 | 174 | 226 | 294 | 382 | 497 |
| margin % | (197.7) | 24.7 | 14.0 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (48) | (38) | (42) | (54) | (70) | (92) | (119) | (155) |
| EBIT | (831) | 6 | (7) | 92 | 120 | 156 | 203 | 263 | 342 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (37) | (48) | |||
| NOPAT | 79 | 103 | 134 | 174 | 227 | 295 | |||
| add depreciation | 56 | 48 | 38 | 42 | 54 | 70 | 92 | 119 | 155 |
| less capex | (11) | (16) | (84) | (103) | (134) | (152) | (168) | (181) | (186) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | (8) | (64) | — | 13 | 40 | 81 | 144 | 237 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 13 | 34 | 63 | 100 | 148 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 433, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 92 | 120 | 156 | 203 | 263 | 342 |
| Interest at 14.9% on debt | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | (65) | |
| Profit before tax | 55 | 91 | 138 | 199 | 278 | |
| Profit after tax | 49 | 48 | 79 | 119 | 171 | 239 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | (11) | (27) | (1) | 87 | 268 |
| Working capital | 32 | 41 | 54 | 70 | 90 | 117 |
| Net block and other assets | 845 | 925 | 1,007 | 1,083 | 1,145 | 1,176 |
| Debt | 433 | 433 | 433 | 433 | 433 | 433 |
| Equity | 270 | 317 | 396 | 514 | 685 | 925 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 92 | 137 | 194 | 269 | 367 | |
| Investing (capex) | (134) | (152) | (168) | (181) | (186) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (42) | (16) | 26 | 88 | 181 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (42) | (16) | 26 | 88 | 181 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 34.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹302 | 205.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.