Models
SIEMENS LTDSIEMENSElectrical Equipment
₹1,511per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,511implied FY26 P/E 16.4× · EV/EBITDA 19.0×
Against CMP ₹3,957.00−61.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,158₹2,219
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,826₹4,149
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9,452 |
| PV of terminal value | 42,660 |
| Enterprise value | 52,112 |
| less net debt | 1,693 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 53,805 |
| ÷ 35.60 crore shares | ₹1,511 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,562 | 1,681 | 1,824 | 2,000 | 2,219 |
| 10.50% | 1,437 | 1,536 | 1,654 | 1,794 | 1,966 |
| 11.00% | 1,330 | 1,414 | 1,511 | 1,627 | 1,765 |
| 11.50% | 1,238 | 1,309 | 1,391 | 1,487 | 1,600 |
| 12.00% | 1,158 | 1,219 | 1,288 | 1,369 | 1,463 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,957.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,139 · 1,488 · 1,961 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,873 | 10,575 | 7,846 | 24,846 | 32,299 | 41,989 | 54,586 | 70,962 | 92,250 |
| growth % | 18.2 | 19.2 | (25.8) | 216.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,220 | 1,474 | 868 | 2,750 | 3,585 | 4,661 | 6,059 | 7,877 | 10,240 |
| margin % | 13.8 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (155) | (159) | (138) | (415) | (549) | (714) | (928) | (1,206) | (1,568) |
| EBIT | 1,066 | 1,316 | 731 | 2,335 | 3,036 | 3,947 | 5,131 | 6,670 | 8,671 |
| less tax on EBIT | (588) | (765) | (995) | (1,293) | (1,681) | (2,185) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,746 | 2,271 | 2,952 | 3,838 | 4,989 | 6,486 | |||
| add depreciation | 155 | 159 | 138 | 415 | 549 | 714 | 928 | 1,206 | 1,568 |
| less capex | (73) | (79) | (190) | (553) | (711) | (907) | (1,157) | (1,476) | (1,882) |
| less working-capital build | — | (723) | (940) | (1,222) | (1,588) | (2,065) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (72) | 109 | (260) | — | 1,387 | 1,819 | 2,387 | 3,131 | 4,108 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,316 | 1,556 | 1,839 | 2,173 | 2,568 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 15.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,335 | 3,036 | 3,947 | 5,131 | 6,670 | 8,671 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 3,036 | 3,947 | 5,131 | 6,670 | 8,671 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,752 | 2,271 | 2,952 | 3,838 | 4,989 | 6,486 |
| Dividends | (429) | (354) | (461) | (599) | (778) | (1,012) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,694 | 2,726 | 4,084 | 5,873 | 8,226 | 11,321 |
| Working capital | 2,416 | 3,139 | 4,079 | 5,301 | 6,890 | 8,955 |
| Net block and other assets | 17,191 | 17,352 | 17,545 | 17,775 | 18,044 | 18,358 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 13,851 | 15,768 | 18,260 | 21,499 | 25,710 | 31,185 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2,097 | 2,726 | 3,544 | 4,607 | 5,990 | |
| Investing (capex) | (711) | (907) | (1,157) | (1,476) | (1,882) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (354) | (461) | (599) | (778) | (1,012) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,032 | 1,359 | 1,788 | 2,353 | 3,096 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,387 | 1,819 | 2,387 | 3,131 | 4,108 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,511 | (61.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.