₹52per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹52implied FY26 P/E 3.0× · EV/EBITDA 11.5×
Against CMP ₹154.80−66.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹39₹77
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹68₹217
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 148 |
| PV of terminal value | 540 |
| Enterprise value | 688 |
| less net debt | (29) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 659 |
| ÷ 12.68 crore shares | ₹52 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 54 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 77 |
| 10.50% | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 68 |
| 11.00% | 46 | 49 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
| 11.50% | 42 | 45 | 48 | 51 | 55 |
| 12.00% | 39 | 42 | 44 | 47 | 50 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹154.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 39 · 51 · 65 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 164 | 224 | 288 | 342 | 405 | 480 | 569 | 674 | 799 |
| growth % | — | 37.0 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 25 | 38 | 60 | 71 | 84 | 100 | 118 | 140 |
| margin % | 10.3 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (20) |
| EBIT | 12 | 20 | 30 | 51 | 61 | 72 | 85 | 101 | 120 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (16) | (18) | (22) | (26) | (31) | |||
| NOPAT | 38 | 45 | 54 | 64 | 75 | 89 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 |
| less capex | (21) | (1) | (21) | (9) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (19) | (24) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (20) | (24) | (28) | (33) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5) | 2 | (24) | — | 28 | 33 | 38 | 45 | 52 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 27 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 33, dividends at 1.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 51 | 61 | 72 | 85 | 101 | 120 |
| Interest at 18.3% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 55 | 66 | 79 | 95 | 114 | |
| Profit after tax | 36 | 41 | 49 | 59 | 71 | 85 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 27 | 55 | 88 | 127 | 173 |
| Working capital | 91 | 108 | 128 | 152 | 180 | 213 |
| Net block and other assets | 201 | 201 | 202 | 203 | 206 | 210 |
| Debt | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Equity | 170 | 210 | 258 | 316 | 386 | 469 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 41 | 50 | 60 | 71 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (19) | (24) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 46 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 29 | 34 | 40 | 47 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18.5% | 17.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹52 | (66.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.