Models
SIYARAM SILK MILLS LTDSIYSILTextiles & Apparels
₹217per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹217implied FY26 P/E 4.2× · EV/EBITDA 3.9×
Against CMP ₹533.00−59.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹154₹344
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹433₹849
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 329 |
| PV of terminal value | 971 |
| Enterprise value | 1,300 |
| less net debt | (314) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 986 |
| ÷ 4.54 crore shares | ₹217 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 227 | 248 | 274 | 305 | 344 |
| 10.50% | 204 | 222 | 243 | 268 | 299 |
| 11.00% | 185 | 200 | 217 | 238 | 263 |
| 11.50% | 168 | 181 | 196 | 213 | 233 |
| 12.00% | 154 | 165 | 177 | 192 | 208 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹533.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (14) · 216 · 401 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,233 | 2,092 | 2,222 | 2,572 | 2,984 | 3,462 | 4,015 | 4,658 | 5,403 |
| growth % | 17.2 | (6.3) | 6.2 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 368 | 285 | 276 | 333 | 385 | 447 | 518 | 601 | 697 |
| margin % | 16.5 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| less depreciation | (58) | (55) | (60) | (79) | (93) | (107) | (124) | (144) | (167) |
| EBIT | 310 | 230 | 216 | 254 | 292 | 339 | 394 | 456 | 530 |
| less tax on EBIT | (60) | (70) | (81) | (94) | (109) | (126) | |||
| NOPAT | 194 | 223 | 258 | 300 | 348 | 403 | |||
| add depreciation | 58 | 55 | 60 | 79 | 93 | 107 | 124 | 144 | 167 |
| less capex | (58) | (59) | (143) | (75) | (87) | (107) | (133) | (164) | (201) |
| less working-capital build | — | (153) | (177) | (205) | (238) | (276) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 178 | 70 | 112 | — | 76 | 81 | 86 | 90 | 93 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 72 | 69 | 66 | 63 | 58 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 320, dividends at 23.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 254 | 292 | 339 | 394 | 456 | 530 |
| Interest at 12.3% on debt | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | |
| Profit before tax | 253 | 300 | 354 | 417 | 490 | |
| Profit after tax | 231 | 193 | 228 | 270 | 318 | 373 |
| Dividends | (54) | (45) | (54) | (63) | (75) | (88) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 7 | 5 | (3) | (17) | (42) |
| Working capital | 954 | 1,106 | 1,283 | 1,489 | 1,727 | 2,004 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,231 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,234 | 1,253 | 1,287 |
| Debt | 320 | 320 | 320 | 320 | 320 | 320 |
| Equity | 1,460 | 1,608 | 1,782 | 1,989 | 2,232 | 2,518 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 133 | 159 | 189 | 224 | 264 | |
| Investing (capex) | (87) | (107) | (133) | (164) | (201) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (45) | (54) | (63) | (75) | (88) | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | (3) | (7) | (15) | (24) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 46 | 51 | 56 | 60 | 63 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 12.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹217 | (59.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.