Models
SJVN LTDSJVNPower
₹-39per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(39)implied FY26 P/E (23.9)× · EV/EBITDA 4.7×
Against CMP ₹66.12−158.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(58)₹(0)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹63₹96
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (10,402) |
| PV of terminal value | 26,170 |
| Enterprise value | 15,768 |
| less net debt | (31,003) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (15,235) |
| ÷ 392.98 crore shares | ₹(39) |
166% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (37) | (30) | (22) | (12) | (0) |
| 10.50% | (43) | (38) | (31) | (23) | (14) |
| 11.00% | (49) | (44) | (39) | (32) | (25) |
| 11.50% | (54) | (50) | (45) | (40) | (34) |
| 12.00% | (58) | (54) | (51) | (46) | (41) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹66.12; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (64) · (40) · (12) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,938 | 2,579 | 3,072 | 4,528 | 5,887 | 7,653 | 9,949 | 12,933 | 16,813 |
| growth % | 21.6 | (12.2) | 19.1 | 47.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,201 | 1,896 | 2,221 | 3,350 | 4,356 | 5,663 | 7,362 | 9,571 | 12,442 |
| margin % | 74.9 | 73.5 | 72.3 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 |
| less depreciation | (396) | (557) | (676) | (1,042) | (1,354) | (1,760) | (2,288) | (2,975) | (3,867) |
| EBIT | 1,804 | 1,339 | 1,545 | 2,308 | 3,002 | 3,903 | 5,074 | 6,596 | 8,575 |
| less tax on EBIT | (969) | (1,261) | (1,639) | (2,131) | (2,770) | (3,601) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,338 | 1,741 | 2,264 | 2,943 | 3,826 | 4,973 | |||
| add depreciation | 396 | 557 | 676 | 1,042 | 1,354 | 1,760 | 2,288 | 2,975 | 3,867 |
| less capex | (6,844) | (5,650) | (6,669) | (5,699) | (7,411) | (7,754) | (7,636) | (6,748) | (4,640) |
| less working-capital build | — | (588) | (765) | (994) | (1,292) | (1,680) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5,212) | (4,340) | (4,186) | — | (4,904) | (4,495) | (3,399) | (1,240) | 2,520 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (4,655) | (3,844) | (2,618) | (861) | 1,576 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 32,103, dividends at 89.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,308 | 3,002 | 3,903 | 5,074 | 6,596 | 8,575 |
| Interest at 4.4% on debt | (1,413) | (1,413) | (1,413) | (1,413) | (1,413) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,590 | 2,490 | 3,661 | 5,183 | 7,162 | |
| Profit after tax | 642 | 922 | 1,444 | 2,124 | 3,006 | 4,154 |
| Dividends | (573) | (823) | (1,290) | (1,896) | (2,685) | (3,710) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,100 | (5,447) | (12,051) | (18,165) | (22,909) | (24,918) |
| Working capital | 1,960 | 2,548 | 3,313 | 4,307 | 5,600 | 7,280 |
| Net block and other assets | 48,705 | 54,763 | 60,757 | 66,104 | 69,877 | 70,651 |
| Debt | 32,103 | 32,103 | 32,103 | 32,103 | 32,103 | 32,103 |
| Equity | 14,249 | 14,348 | 14,502 | 14,730 | 15,051 | 15,496 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,688 | 2,440 | 3,418 | 4,689 | 6,341 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7,411) | (7,754) | (7,636) | (6,748) | (4,640) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (823) | (1,290) | (1,896) | (2,685) | (3,710) | |
| Net change in cash | (6,547) | (6,604) | (6,114) | (4,744) | (2,009) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (5,724) | (5,314) | (4,218) | (2,059) | 1,701 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 74% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(39) | (158.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.